[rmind]

The civilized world must respond, no questions about that. However, the idea of "WW3" is wrong and helps the Russian regime to instigate the fears in our societies. Unfortunately, it was echoed even by some top politicians. Let's put it this way:

  - Before all sanctions, the Russian economy was about the same size as the Italian economy. Russia barely has any allies: Belarus and to some extent Iran (with some vocal supporters like Venezuela or Syria, but they have nothing substantial to offer). Neither China nor India will back Russia. You can see how isolated Russia is in the United Nations (e.g. UNGA Resolution ES-11/4).
  - Russia has lost most of its conventional military capacity and capability in Ukraine. Russia is nowhere near the Soviet Union with its Warsaw Pact satellites. The illusion of its mighty power was based on propaganda. To the point where Putin himself began believe his own propaganda and Russia's invincibility.
  - Yet, they threaten NATO and the aligned countries. NATO is a military superpower. These countries combined (USA, EU, UK) have a population of ~1 billion people. It is also nearly a half of the world economy.

There will be no WW3.

[roenxi]

Funnily enough, before WWII I suspect a lot of people in Europe were predicting there would be no WWII because the consequences would be so horrific for the Germans that it just wouldn't happen. Then the Germans did it anyway. The outcomes were somewhat predictable - all their leadership was killed and their state was dismantled.

Just because the consequences for Russia would be unimaginably bad doesn't mean much. What is important is that the de-escalation happens. And part of that involves listening to what the Russians are saying earnestly, rather than going with millennia of monkey-instincts that say to stop listening to the out group when times are tough.

[Bubble_Pop_22]

This is not the 1930s anymore. Just look at murder rates even in Russia.

People are much more satisfied/apathetic, they won't collectively risk their quality of life for a war.

The biggest predictor of mass violence (war) is your run of the mill daily violence (murders, revolts, terrorism etc), those are at historic minimums.

The second biggest predictor is trust in institutions, which also is at an all time low. This is especially true in Russia, but also in the West. The shelf life of a POTUS is basically 2-6 months, that's how long the approval rating stays above 50%.

By the time the 1st anniversary of inauguration comes around every POTUS from now on will be around 35-38%. That has never been the case ever.

[rmind]

World War II wasn't just Germany. As a matter of fact, Poland was invanded jointly by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. I think you partly missed the point. Anyway..

It is certainly important to de-escalate, but it cannot happen under the Russian terms. The current war in Ukraine is a war of conquest. Moreover, it is genocidal (as dictator in Russia is questining the very existance of the Ukrainian nation). There must be serious consequences for this, otherwise we just go one or rather two centuries back when invading, conquering territories and enslaving the local populations was a norm.

[freefaler]

A slight clarification on Poland timeline. It was a more nuanced thing and it was not a coordinated attack from two sides on the same time as frequently claimed.

Poland was invaded by Germany on Sep 1 and when they overran the designated by the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact borders Russians occupied the rest of the country beginning on Sep 17th.

No major fighting occured between the Russians and the Polish army during the russian occupation.

It doensn't change the end result, occupation by both countries, but they're some accounts that Stalin was hesitant to send his troops early.

[roenxi]

Lucky everything is relaxed in the Asia-Pacific is relaxed and there is no risk of conflict rising up there for any reason! Otherwise I'd be scared.

Except for the China-Taiwan thing and the concerning risk of an unstable China after their COVID policies. We're very close to a really ugly situation.

Russia is isolated in the Ukraine conflict, but not in opposing the US military.

[cjblomqvist]

It's very tricky to forecast the future. Maybe China decides a war between NATO and Russia is a good opportunity to attack Taiwan? Maybe India is forced into play by one of these events? Then we have middle east very close to being involved as well. Voila - WW3!

[D13Fd]

Agreed on WW3. But they still may have enough nuclear weapons that they could end the world as we know it. I'm not saying that means the rest of us have to do anything in particular, but it's something that has to factor into the analysis.

[DarkWiiPlayer]

Iran and India are trying to see what they can get out of Russia. China is ready to pounce at the smallest sign of weakness. Belarus needs Russia but doesn't want to get dragged into their war.

Russia has no allies on the world, only common enemy relations.