[weatherlite]

They could always make a new deal with the Russians if they will face imminent famine and the collapse of industry (which I don't believe they are). All in all sounds like hyperbole to me. A harsh recession is very likely though. Seriously what is the theory here, they care about Ukraine so much they are willing to implode for it with no plan b? I find it hard to believe.

[nradov]

It's not that the other Europeans particularly care about Ukraine. They remember what happened last time they tried to appease an aggressive, expansionist dictator. If Ukraine is allowed to fall then next it will be Moldova, Lithuania, Poland, and so on. Better to take the pain now while the problem is still manageable rather than letting the situation spiral out of control.

[weatherlite]

I generally agree but I go back to the pessimistic article that (humorously?) predicts Europeans will go back to living conditions from 200 years ago. I don't think rational European leaders will let that happen. It could be that they completely lost their minds (there are signs...) but I give them some more credit for now. Even the Ukranians themselves probably have their limits on how much they care about Donbas and Crimea.

[TheLoafOfBread]

Last time it was Germany.

- It militarized Rhineland, nothing happened

- It got Luftwaffe operational again, nothing happened

- It annexed Austria, nothing happened

- It was given Sudetenland, it was even encouraged by allies

- It annexed rest of Czechoslovakia, nothing happened.

- It started war with Poland, Allies declared war and then nothing happened.

- Only when Germany started to conquer Norway, Allies have finally started to wake up.

[weatherlite]

There are parallels but also a whole bunch of differences between Nazi Germany and Russia.

[bitL]

They can't, with blown up pipes they can't just start receiving gas they need. That gives credibility to this theory - if there are mass protests and new EU governments as a result, they can't go back anyway as there is no longer infrastructure for gas delivery anymore. It really looks like some group wants EU all in, so we should be prepared for the worst possible outcome (WW3, some life remaining on the planet) if that's even possible.

[weatherlite]

> They can't, with blown up pipes they can't just start receiving gas they need.

Pipes can be reconstructed, peace deals can be made and shut down gas fields can be reopened (looking at you Groningen).

> It really looks like some group wants EU all in, so we should be prepared for the worst possible outcome (WW3, some life remaining on the planet) if that's even possible.

Well if that happens it happens - what's your idea of preparing? To me a quick death sounds pretty good in such a case.

[bitL]

Pipes can't be reconstructed quickly and can be blown up again later.

My guess southern hemisphere might have some chance of survival if SHTF so that's where I will be heading. Most people will die gruesome prolonged deaths from starvation, broken bones or radiation, only a fraction will be vaporized instantly.

[moistly]

Are you aware that nukes were set off forty to sixty times a year for two decades? In 1962, 140 nuclear explosions. Over 2000 nukes have gone off.

Two cities have been nuked. They are thriving cities today. The planet has not been blown up. It is not a hellscape. Crops didn’t fail. Even the worst nuclear disasters have had very limited effect beyond their immediate vicinity.

Follow Dory’s advice: keep on swimming. The world is not ending this year.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_s...

[bitL]

Those nukes went off sequentially, not all at once. Of course spreading effects across many years would lead small effects that could be mostly ignored.

[weatherlite]

You must be a hoot at parties! :)

Look I'm not saying it's an impossibility but I don't think it's very likely any time soon.

> Most people will die gruesome prolonged deaths from starvation, broken bones or radiation

Most people die a pretty shitty death from cancer / degenration / dementia. I can't see how you can escape that, it awaits us all .(btw why the south? Are they immune to nuclear winter / food shortages / climate change?)

[bitL]

Something with wind streams partially shielding southern hemisphere from winds in northern hemisphere. So by the time fallout reaches southern hemisphere, it will be partially diluted. Of course, assuming AUS/NZ/BRA/ARG won't get nuked as well, then it might be moot.

Maybe I am overly pessimistic, but I've seen my share of corp/gov dysfunctionalities and nothing gives me any assurance current "leaders" would stop before blowing up the planet.