[gabyar]

Burry is a hedge fund manager. The most important part of his job is to scare people away from the S&P and entice them to put money into his fund.

It's generally a mistake to trust the financial advice of any hedge fund manager, and they usually provide advice that makes the S&P seem like a bad bet.

[readme]

I think he only invests for himself now. According to wikipedia he closed scion capital in 08. What's his fund now?

[missedthecue]

Scion Asset Management isn't open to clients.

[echelon]

The more widely his narrative is believed, the more money he makes. He's not behaving selflessly here.

[jeffbee]

That's a vapid take. If I have information that isn't widely known, and I have established a vested position, then it is always profitable for me to promulgate my information. That doesn't suggest my information is wrong.

[lossolo]

What if I don't have information that isn't widely known but I've people listening to me because I was once right in 2008 so now everyone is listening to what I have to say, and then I use it to influence people to do what I want based on what I say? Couldn't that be other side of the coin?

[chii]

it's not information being promulgated, but speculation.

Time will tell whether said speculation will turn out to be right. However, if more people believed such speculation, it might make it more likely to be right in the future. Therefore, there's a selfish reason for said person to promulgate such speculation.

[pyrrhotech]

Actually Burry dissolved his fund and only invests his own money (mid 9-figure net worth) now

[BenGosub]

He's always so doomy, he does have a point, but I don't believe that things will be so extreme.

[Aeolun]

> S&P seem like a bad bet

Looking at the S&P anywhere in the past 100 years makes it look like a pretty solid bet (not even a bet really).

[pyrrhotech]

That depends on your alternative options. The S&P 500 has averaged 6.6% real returns historically. Better than bonds? sure. Better than unleveraged global real estate? sure. Better than gold? sure. Better than PE? no. Better than leveraged rentals? hell no. Better than investing in productive capacity in your own startup? lol.

No one ever became wealthy from buy and hold index funds. The returns are relatively low because most people are lazy and it's the easy thing to do. That's why I split my time between active investing (https://grizzlybulls.com) and working on my private business ventures.

[Aeolun]

> No one ever became wealthy from buy and hold index funds.

Nobody ever became poor from it either (unless they panic). At least your money keeps pace with inflation to some extend. It certainly beats the money sitting in your bank account doing nothing (the alternative for most people).

[ztrww]

There were long periods were it barely beat inflation and some were it didn’t even do that.

e.g. it took 30 years to recover to 1929 levels, then also 30 years to reach the 1960’s peak, in 2010 it fell to mid 90’s levels (all inflation adjusted).

So yes, you’re right but it depends on how long you can wait. Over 50-60 years you should be fine. 20-30 who knows, if you’ve entered just before a peak it might not recover within your lifetime.

[formerkrogemp]

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[Aeolun]

There’s no guarantee that gravity won’t invert tomorrow either. You can infer the likelyhood from past results though.

[formerkrogemp]

I don't think the expression applies to harder physical limits such as gravity or exists as a statement of epistemological nihilism in most cases. I don't doubt that inductive reasoning is useful however. It's difficult to impossible to use it effectively or consistently profitability to predict market swings if i had to hazard a guess based on the phrase.