That depends on your alternative options. The S&P 500 has averaged 6.6% real returns historically. Better than bonds? sure. Better than unleveraged global real estate? sure. Better than gold? sure. Better than PE? no. Better than leveraged rentals? hell no. Better than investing in productive capacity in your own startup? lol.
No one ever became wealthy from buy and hold index funds. The returns are relatively low because most people are lazy and it's the easy thing to do. That's why I split my time between active investing (https://grizzlybulls.com) and working on my private business ventures.
> No one ever became wealthy from buy and hold index funds.
Nobody ever became poor from it either (unless they panic). At least your money keeps pace with inflation to some extend. It certainly beats the money sitting in your bank account doing nothing (the alternative for most people).
There were long periods were it barely beat inflation and some were it didn’t even do that.
e.g. it took 30 years to recover to 1929 levels, then also 30 years to reach the 1960’s peak, in 2010 it fell to mid 90’s levels (all inflation adjusted).
So yes, you’re right but it depends on how long you can wait. Over 50-60 years you should be fine. 20-30 who knows, if you’ve entered just before a peak it might not recover within your lifetime.
I don't think the expression applies to harder physical limits such as gravity or exists as a statement of epistemological nihilism in most cases. I don't doubt that inductive reasoning is useful however. It's difficult to impossible to use it effectively or consistently profitability to predict market swings if i had to hazard a guess based on the phrase.
No one ever became wealthy from buy and hold index funds. The returns are relatively low because most people are lazy and it's the easy thing to do. That's why I split my time between active investing (https://grizzlybulls.com) and working on my private business ventures.