[pwinnski]

Cui bono? The argument about "who benefits" is going to go on for quite a while, but I'll agree with you that this doesn't seem to benefit Russia at all. If all actors involved were perfectly rational, Russia would be near the bottom of my list for suspect.

Of course, all actors are not perfectly rational, and Russia is notably irrational at the moment, so I guess they can't be eliminated from the list entirely. Still, I don't consider them the most likely.

[Balgair]

Vlad is very far from rational these days. Gazprom was sending out pictures of their 'oil leaks' earlier this month [0] in a very obviously mocking way. That Vlad would intentionally sabotage the pipes to thumb his nose at the Germans is more than likely to me. Nothing about this war has made any sense for Vlad.

The only thing that does make sense to me is if Vlad is trying to use the destruction of the pipe as a way to get sanctions lifted. The pipe and compressor stations that may have been destroyed are quite difficult to replace without the help of Russia. So Vlad may be trying to use his second-to-last card [1] to get the Germans on his side again.

To you and I, that's obviously not going to make the Germans be on his side. But Vlad isn't really playing with a full deck anymore (sorry for all the card related metaphors). Blowing up the pipes is a 'cunningly dumb' idea that kinda fits with end-stage regimes like his.

[0] https://t.me/gazprom/886

[1] the last card being his nukes

Edit: my bad, he has the chemical weapons and biological weapons cards left to play too

[oboes]

Small remark:

The diminutive form of the Russian name "Vladimir" is actually "Volodya".

While "Vlad" is the diminutive form of "Vladislav".

[Balgair]

Thanks! Kinda like William > Bill in English.

[roydivision]

“The Russian president sees the world through the lens of maskirovka and provokatsiia.” [1]

Putin is a master of distraction and confusion, skills that he learned earlier in his career.

I’m not saying that he definitely orchestrated the explosions, but his methods are often opaque, and not immediately rational.

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukra...