[stouset]

As an example of this, until the Niemann game Magnus had a 53-game win^H^H^Hunbeaten streak. Prior to this he had a 125-game unbeaten streak. Many (most?) of these games were played against competitors within 200 Elo. Many of these were played against the 10 next-best chess players in the world.

The back of the envelope percentage calculation absolutely does not apply at this level of chess. In reality if Niemann were to play Magnus in 100 games, he would be exceedingly lucky to win one game.

[dfan]

I disagree with the second paragraph but not enough to get into a public debate about it. But it is worth pointing out that Carlsen's 53-game streak was a non-loss streak, not a win streak. Many of those games were draws.

[stouset]

You are of course correct on that point and I have edited my comment.

[andrepd]

So hitting a 1/100 chance means he is cheating? 1% is slim, but far from impossible.

[stouset]

First, I said he would be lucky to have a 1 in 100 chance. Second, absolutely nobody is saying that's the only reason to be suspicious of this game. Regardless of whether or not you believe Niemann cheated, if you think the fact that he won is the only claim in this accusation you simply aren't paying attention.

[jefftk]

It's not just the winning, it's also how he played