[aliyfarah]

I find it puzzling how so many people are convinced Ukraine will defeat Russia in the conventional war that’s currently raging. And it’s not just arm chair generals on Twitter, but high ranking government officials in the West, and experienced generals like David Patreus (who today said Russian defeat was inevitable).

How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Or would never use its nuclear weapons?

Up until now Russia has been waging this war with its arms tied behind its back and now that the West has artificially prolonged this war with its endless shipment of weapons and intelligence, Russia has been forced to escalate.

The United States was responsible for instigating this war in the first place, by giving false confidence to Ukraine and encouraging them to play hard ball with Russia with regards to NATO membership etc. Now they are drip feeding Ukraine with weapons, just enough to keep the conflict going, ostensibly to make Russia lick its wounds and retreat in humiliation? Not sure if its a deliberate policy but the US is in effect destroying Ukraine & giving it a slow, painful death.

Zelensky has huge responsibility for this war as well. His refusal to take serious Putin's threat of war, despite months of warning with solid intelligence, right up until the cruise missiles started landing, should be evidence enough of his incompetence & that he is well above his head. Now he is trying to make up for his incompetence by needlessly sacrificing tens of thousand of his own citizens lives.

I genuinely find it quite repulsing how he is constantly on TV, be it Oscars, sporting events, begging for arms & aid 24/7. He has been begging for tanks, fighter jets, helicopters & even submarines. He basically wants to command the US military minus the personnel. How delusional can one get? Many find him courageous but I really think he is a narcissist who really thinks his playing a role in a movie. The US has found just the right person who is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

"Today, my life is beautiful. I believe that I am needed. I feel it is the most important meaning in life" - Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Feb 24, 2022

[megous]

The only country destroying Ukraine here is Russia. All these mental gymnastics to say otherwise are just so weird. Russia attacked, Russia continues the fight (they can stop the war at any time, and I would be really surprised if there was any attack on Russia land by NATO in that case, lol)

And that you're talking about delusions of Ukrainian president and not a bleep about the delusions of Russia's wannabe czar, is also interesting... :D (take a huge millitarized country that he scared into preparing for a war for last 8 years since 2014, in 3 days, lol)

You also have to give to Zelensky that his begging is massively successful. He got 10's of choppers, massive ammounts of ammunition, hundreds of tanks, high hundreds of armored infantry transport vehicles, anti air defense systems, radars, advanced anti-radar and anit-ship missiles, tens of advanced MLRSs, and god knows what else. Even if you disagree with arming Ukraine, it's hard to call the behavbior that works delusional.

I'm pretty glad that Russia bleeds on its imperialistic adventures. It occupied my country for decades with hundreds of thousands of troops, and I want Russia to weaken as much as possible, so that risk of that happening again is as low as possible. I'll be all for trade again, when they get rid of their imperialistic mindset at the top.

[m000]

> You also have to give to Zelensky that his begging is massively successful.

Genuine question: Is the military support received by Ukraine really pro bono? Or will Ukrainian people be handled the bill after this mess ends?

I understand that the support is a mixture of Soviet-era junk and modern equipment. So, I'd guess, there may be more than one answers.

[megous]

As I understand it it's a huge mixture of many things. From military aid, to financial aid for various pre-defined purposes, both lending and pro bono. Ukraine is also buying equipment in normal ways (likely from borrowed money, or from miltary financial aid).

Some countries seem happy to send equipment hoping that the fight will stay as close to Russia's borders as possible. My country was one of the first to send heavy equipment like tanks to Ukraine, and from all I've read it seems to be for free. Regular people are donating money to Ukr foreign ministry that Ukraine uses to buy military equipment.

If you look at history, US had lend-lease with USSR and Soviets/Russia paid up only part of it over 65 years or so, and a lot of it was written off. So it may take long time to recover the cost, or it may be impossible if Ukraine loses.

There is large overview here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai...

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

[Hamuko]

>I find it puzzling how so many people are convinced Ukraine will defeat Russia in the conventional war that’s currently raging.

>How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war?

We must have a different concept of "conventional war" if the assumption is that Russia is going to start nuking Ukraine to the ground.

>Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population?

Is the assumption that once Russia mobilises its population, they'll all go "sir, yes, sir" and go storm Ukraine?

Also, the responsibility for this war is absolutely on Russia, for deciding that Ukraine is a part of Russia through either a puppet government or through direct invasion.

[foverzar]

> Is the assumption that once Russia mobilises its population, they'll all go "sir, yes, sir" and go storm Ukraine?

Russia has like 150 mil in population and they currently plan to mobilize 300k. That's a fraction of percent - I'd expect that there would be more than enough who will.

> Also, the responsibility for this war is absolutely on Russia, for deciding that Ukraine is a part of Russia through either a puppet government or through direct invasion.

Oh please, each member of the conflict, from Russia and Ukraine to Germany, France and the US - all have made multiple conscious consecutive steps to escalate it into a war. Remember how there was Minsk-1, then Minsk-2, and how all this had dragged on? Remember how Nord Stream pipeline sanctions were a thing years before the war? Remember how just before the war Russia demanded security guarantees from NATO? Good times, lots of opportunities.

You may disagree with it ideologically or engage in needless value signaling, but this won't change the reality of multiple cause-effects that brought us where we are.

I blame the political elites, IMO this is just criminal incompetence of politicians, completely detached self-righteousness and a lack of any political will to find compromises. And of course your typical corruption: American Congressional-Industrial-Complex once again demonstrates us how Eisenhower was right in his assertions and that last warning speech.

[Hamuko]

>Remember how there was Minsk-1, then Minsk-2, and how all this had dragged on? Remember how Nord Stream pipeline sanctions were a thing years before the war? Remember how just before the war Russia demanded security guarantees from NATO? Good times, lots of opportunities.

All of those things happened after the Russo-Ukrainian War had actually started.

[foverzar]

This all had been well before February 2022, when the war had started.

One could argue that the half-civil war between Kyiv and Donetsk/Luhansk is also a part of this war (that would imply though that you see the civil war in Syria as a Syrian-American conflict, but why not)

It doesn't change the fact that there were quite a lot of opportunities to deescalate, that Russia was willing to participate in.

Reiterating, all direct and indirect participants consciously took all the necessary steps to turn all this into such a bloody mess.

It could all be nicely and democratically resolved by simply giving Donetsk and Luhansk basic autonomy, while still remaining part of Ukraine. But that was kinda politically challenging, so escalation it is.

[trasz]

DNR/LNR were set up by Russia, so that one was a proxy war between Russia and Ukraine. It turned into a direct conflict when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014.

[m000]

> It could all be nicely and democratically resolved by simply giving Donetsk and Luhansk basic autonomy, while still remaining part of Ukraine. But that was kinda politically challenging, so escalation it is.

This. West firmly understood that Ukraine is a deeply divided country [1]. Yet, West peddled the (clearly infeasible) idea of a unitary state. This could never end well for all of Ukrainians.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/01/24...

[IYasha]

> Is the assumption that once Russia mobilises its population, they'll all go "sir, yes, sir" and go storm Ukraine?

The punishment for recruitment evasion is 3 to 6 years of prison (as I was told). Considering Russia has moved the same way as all "civilized" states towards total surveillance and profitable imprisonment, this is very much real.

Neither Russia, nor any other country may nuke the ukrainian territory - it is too valuable and defeats the purpose of the whole operation.

PS: I urge you to research what the word "Ukraine" means.

[aliyfarah]

> We must have a different concept of "conventional war" if the assumption is that Russia is going to start nuking Ukraine to the ground.

Being a nuclear state in of itself gives you plenty advantages in a conventional war, even if they aren’t used.

[amai]

> How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Or would never use its nuclear weapons?

Did you ever read about the Vietnam war? Or the war of the USSR in Afghanistan? In both cases a nuclear power effectively lost the war. So it is definitely possible that something similar happens again.

[justin66]

> Up until now Russia has been waging this war with its arms tied behind its back

That seems irrational of them.

[_kbh_]

Doesn't every army lose 10's of thousands of soldiers, thousands of vehicles, hundreds of tanks and tens of planes / helicopters to finally start _really trying_?.

[_kbh_]

> How can a nuclear armed country with a 100 million population advantage possibly lose this war? Do these people assume Russia would never mobilise its population? Or would never use its nuclear weapons?

Their military is terribly corrupt, how else can you explain Russia rolling out the T62 already?, they are meant to have plenty of T72's but that clearly wasn't the truth.

> Up until now Russia has been waging this war with its arms tied behind its back and now that the West has artificially prolonged this war with its endless shipment of weapons and intelligence, Russia has been forced to escalate.

Ah yes, Russias famous hypersonic missiles, spetsnaz, VDV and T90 hand tied behind their back. Russias be throwing everything and the kitchen sink at Ukraine, but it just doesn't seem to work, they aren't holding back _this is all they have_.

> The United States was responsible for instigating this war in the first place, by giving false confidence to Ukraine and encouraging them to play hard ball with Russia with regards to NATO membership etc. Now they are drip feeding Ukraine with weapons, just enough to keep the conflict going, ostensibly to make Russia lick its wounds and retreat in humiliation?.

The only person responsible for the current ongoing Ukrainian genocide is Russia, Russia alone made the decision to invade and Russia alone made the decision to commit war crimes.

> Not sure if its a deliberate policy but the US is in effect destroying Ukraine & giving it a slow, painful death.

Military aid to Ukraine is the only thing that stands between Ukraine and the end of its people and country. Ironically it seems like it was really good that Russia only kinda invaded in 2014 cause since then Ukraine has been strengthening their military and training for this day.

I suspect is Russia kept on rolling forward in 2014 then Ukraine would be a Russian puppet state like Belarus.

> Zelensky has huge responsibility for this war as well. His refusal to take serious Putin's threat of war, despite months of warning with solid intelligence, right up until the cruise missiles started landing, should be evidence enough of his incompetence & that he is well above his head. Now he is trying to make up for his incompetence by needlessly sacrificing tens of thousand of his own citizens lives.

Zelensky believed the Russians where better people then to invade, he was Cleary wrong.

> I genuinely find it quite repulsing how he is constantly on TV, be it Oscars, sporting events, begging for arms & aid 24/7. He has been begging for tanks, fighter jets, helicopters & even submarines. He basically wants to command the US military minus the personnel. How delusional can one get? Many find him courageous but I really think he is a narcissist who really thinks his playing a role in a movie. The US has found just the right person who is willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

He is on TV asking for weapons to help his country stop a active genocide he's doing exactly what he should be doing.

[filoleg]

Solid take. It always blows my mind when people in the west try to paint russian military as some sort of "spetznas spec ops elite soldiers from call of duty" tier, all while growing up there I was given a very different story.

A month or so before the war even started, as I was talking to my dad (who used to be a low-level officer back in his days and, unfortunately, currently lives in Russia), he quickly pointed out that Russia is about to embarass themselves big time, as the military is extremely corrupt there. All those tanks that have been presented to higher ups as maintained and functional for decades? As the tradition goes, some local military higher ups just pocketed the money and were relaying the "everything is well and maintained" to higher higher-ups from the outside. That's not just tanks, that's quite literally every single piece of equipment, as long as there was a way to pocket the money by not maintaining the equipment.

My dad had stories from his own military days, where his platoon had been given orders to "dress up the vehicles" to make it look like they are all good and operational when higher ups from outside of the region were visiting. In reality, they all were rusted up and wouldn't survive a 50 mile drive. I kept hearing those stories since I was a child, and the current performance of Russian military in Ukraine certainly affirms them.