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by adamsfallen 5314 days ago
Okay I think I understand the concept much better now. The comparison to Fantasy Leagues (which is essentially another way of gamifying games) makes the value seem a lot more real.

The data part is still a bit puzzling to me, but intriguing. I still am not sure I understand the concept of getting more transparency (e.g. the data of who is betting on either side). My admittedly gut-response to the two examples:

a) Betting with the crowd - surely the team that is favored to win is the team with the "crowd" on its side, right? That's how the line on the game is established in the first place...

b) Matching the bet of a smart friend - this makes sense to me, that if a friend or expert can "beat the market" you could follow along.

I guess my uninformed skepticism is based on the idea that it would be hard to produce a system that could predict sports outcomes more reliably than the market. If such a system worked, wouldn't it destroy the entire gambling industry?

E.g., if such a system worked well, and could reliably beat the market, more than helping people follow along good bets, you could just make a bazillion dollars betting on sports games. Monetization strategy solved ;).
1 comments
bigurn 5314 days ago
a - you'll at least get an idea of where the money is going vs the way it is now... you see a line and you bet it. This transparency isn't necessarily valuable on a per game basis, but when you start to look at trends of certain teams against the spread + the way the public (crowd) picks.. you start to see larger trends that can help you predict with higher probability of the crowds accuracy for certain types of bets or matchups, etc.

b - this drives people to become experts which means more informed analysis, and potential of beating the market through following the picks of 1 or more experts.

-- It's not about beating the market necessarily, it's about leveling the playing field (major disruption). Right now the markets have all the info on who is betting where... think of what would happen when people had that info too?

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