[fourneau]

I am a hardcore advocate for cutting oil and gas as much as possible, but even ignoring the war, the order of operations is more or less wrong. Electrify your homes, fix your grid, then cut subsidies.

Do the hard parts first. (The alternative only ends up making things worse for the average person)

[rozap]

Nobody has an incentive to electrify if oil and gas are still artificially cheap.

[bioemerl]

The end of oil cannot and will not come due to its (market) price.

As electrification happens demand for oil will drop and oil will get cheaper. In a world without externalities this would lead to a state of having a mix of both.

But we need oil to go away entirely. Price won't do that unless green tech is so crazy cheap that it makes oil literally not worth pulling out of the ground. I don't see it happening.

Or --- I could see it happening, but that's only after most wells run dry - if that happens we have failed to prevent global warming.

To get rid of oil we just:

* Have the tech that allows it.

* Tax the crap out of oil so that it is forced to maintain a certain price.

* Let the market squeeze oil out. The oil will be cheap, but taxes will make it not worth anything.

And there are many incentives to electrify. Including government subsidies, the fact that green tech is already often cheaper than oil, and the fact that oil is an unreliable resource.

Right now? We need gas to run our society. It's OK to take steps to keep it going so long as we also take steps to ensure we can stop the tap when it's time.

[ars]

Speaking of order of operations, first fix your grid, then electrify the homes.

Look at California which has banned new gasoline cars in 2035, banned new natural gas hookups, and also told people to reduce electrical usage and not charge their cars!

[bioemerl]

I feel like this is a false connection.

The 2035 ban doesn't change the present either way and Cali has a ton of time to beef up its power grid in the meantime.

[polski-g]

California won't. Just like they won't ever complete that $100bn high speed rail.

[axus]

I thought it was "charge your cars at night"

[thehappypm]

California’s great held during a literally historic heat wave. That’s a vote of confidence for me that they can handle this transition. Sure they tried to reduce load, but that’s a sensible thing to do in a historically high demand for electricity!