The end of oil cannot and will not come due to its (market) price.
As electrification happens demand for oil will drop and oil will get cheaper. In a world without externalities this would lead to a state of having a mix of both.
But we need oil to go away entirely. Price won't do that unless green tech is so crazy cheap that it makes oil literally not worth pulling out of the ground. I don't see it happening.
Or --- I could see it happening, but that's only after most wells run dry - if that happens we have failed to prevent global warming.
To get rid of oil we just:
* Have the tech that allows it.
* Tax the crap out of oil so that it is forced to maintain a certain price.
* Let the market squeeze oil out. The oil will be cheap, but taxes will make it not worth anything.
And there are many incentives to electrify. Including government subsidies, the fact that green tech is already often cheaper than oil, and the fact that oil is an unreliable resource.
Right now? We need gas to run our society. It's OK to take steps to keep it going so long as we also take steps to ensure we can stop the tap when it's time.
As electrification happens demand for oil will drop and oil will get cheaper. In a world without externalities this would lead to a state of having a mix of both.
But we need oil to go away entirely. Price won't do that unless green tech is so crazy cheap that it makes oil literally not worth pulling out of the ground. I don't see it happening.
Or --- I could see it happening, but that's only after most wells run dry - if that happens we have failed to prevent global warming.
To get rid of oil we just:
* Have the tech that allows it.
* Tax the crap out of oil so that it is forced to maintain a certain price.
* Let the market squeeze oil out. The oil will be cheap, but taxes will make it not worth anything.
And there are many incentives to electrify. Including government subsidies, the fact that green tech is already often cheaper than oil, and the fact that oil is an unreliable resource.
Right now? We need gas to run our society. It's OK to take steps to keep it going so long as we also take steps to ensure we can stop the tap when it's time.