[Workaccount2]

Are people actually going to freeze?

My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people. I get a feeling that this crisis is becoming more media-gorging-on-crisis-clicks than it is an objective analysis.

[rjzzleep]

Industry doesn't freeze as needed. It freezes indefinitely. Once something is out of business it's out of business and will either be outsourced or bought up by bigger fish.

When industry dies the social safety net dies, it will happen when the Euro looses its value, in which case money printing will no longer be possible without hyperinflation. And a devalued Euro is only useful if there is still an industry left to export things.

Once that happens people will actually freeze.

[cpursley]

A lot of people still don't grasp that de-industrialization is already happening. In Europe, major metal smelters, chemical manufactures, etc are already off line or shutting down soon. And the way factories work, you can just shut them down and fire them back up at a later date - they need to run continuously. Additionally, these are not only large employers, but greatly contribute to the tax revenue which support the generous welfare states. It's not looking pretty.

https://www.ft.com/content/46d3c3fb-e79a-464c-afe1-7079d3e4f...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-17/energy-cr...

[dougmwne]

Some people are absolutely going to die, but then we are talking very large numbers and most policy produces casualties of some sort.

You are most likely talking older and poorer people. Some will maybe get sick due to insufficient money to heat, some will die from monoxide poisoning from using unfamiliar and improper stoves.

[that_guy_iain]

Realistically, some people might freeze. Especially older people. Every year, there elderly folk die from not being able to afford to heat their homes. This year, it'll be worse for them. It's very likely the number of old people dying due to not being able to afford heating will skyrocket.

Slovakian ministers are talking about people having to go into the woods secretly to cut down wood to set on fire. There are countries where they are fully expecting people who work for a living not being able to afford to heat their homes.

People are going to die over this.

[blitzar]

> Are people actually going to freeze?

Yes.

An average of 9,700 deaths each year are believed to be caused by living in a cold house, according to research by National Energy Action (NEA) (UK).

Why do you think that with less heating, or the same heating cost 4x the amount, the situation would be better?

[dosenbrot]

At this point maybe nobody knows this for sure. IF industry is going to have an energy-problem, then everybody else WILL have a financial problem (and many become poor - we heave just now 9% inflation and industry is running fine, what will happen if it isn’t running anymore). And IF gas for private heating will be scarce, then everybody WILL have a problem with electricity (since many will heat with electric and kill our grid). It’s not for sure but MAYBE we have a problem. So maybe it’s a good idea to have a plan B to warm some canned food up. Or how we say in Germany: Besser man hat als man hätte.

[johnchristopher]

France has a plan and that plan has multiple steps and phases and the last one involves some electricity blackouts for citizens but it's the very last step. So far.

France has the capability to selectively cut off some neighborhood from the grid and they plan to do 2 hours rotations if need arises.

I don't know if they are going so far as moving people out of their house to gather them in a larger building that is easier to heat.

Quite frankly, I don't expect to hear about the real plans before mid-october.

[kyriakos]

Never understood rationing. If electricity is cut off for 2 hours won't residents use double the electricity in the following 2 hours after supply is restored? For example I won't run the wash during the cut off time but I will most definitely do after it's reconnected.

[wizofaus]

If it were a once-off incident like that, perhaps, but if everyone knew they'd only get, say, 8 hours electricity a day over several weeks, I don't doubt they'd use less than having it available 24 hours a day.

[johnchristopher]

I think the reason is also to optimize load on the grid to prevent losses.

[orwin]

If we have a mild winter, rolling blackouts won't be necessary.

I know the government reached some industrials which were usually left off energy offset plans (basically processing factories), so this might be serious, but honestly, people heating with electricity should be fine.

[logicalmonster]

> Are people actually going to freeze?

If I had to guess, I'd say much more than usual, but not a calamitous amount like millions or anything. Every winter, elderly who can't take good care of themselves succumb to cold or illness. For one winter, I'd say that most average people will be able to survive, albeit uncomfortably doing things like burning through their remaining savings or getting deeper into debt, huddling in bed together or wearing thick layers indoors, and finding trees to chop down for wood if desperate.

This prediction is just for 1 winter. If this situation lasts until the next winter, people/governments will be even more screwed financially by then and the outcome will likely be calamitous then.

> My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people.

Real economies aren't video games that have a pause button. We learned during Covid that shutdowns that are labeled as temporary are not so. Supply chains get ruined: machines and spare parts and needed chemicals get harder and harder to find. Businesses can't afford to pay rent and wages for months with no income and have to shut down. Truly skilled employees with real domain knowledge use the shutdown to retire early or change careers and their knowledge of processes is lost. Etc.

And this isn't a normal time where the governments of the world can really go further and extend themselves to really help and minimize the impact: they blew themselves out financially overreacting to Covid and are insisting on blowing out whatever remaining financial resources they might have to endlessly signal their virtue against Putin.

[refurb]

Not sure that sounds much better? No production, no money, no jobs.

[jotm]

Everything in the media is a load of "WE'LL ALL DIE TOMORROW" bullshit these days.

Just to get people's attention.

Shit will be fine.

[cpursley]

> Shit will be fine.

For highly payed ivory tower folks, yes. For everyone else, it's going to be difficult. Energy is everything in modern society.

[jotm]

I'm near the bottom of the wage list and even if energy costs triple, I'll do fine.

Not sure what others are doing.

Depends on what you mean by "fine", too.

[cpursley]

Are you in Europe? Some predictions are that the average family will have to spend upwards of 30% on energy there.

[jotm]

Right, and that would be an extra ~100 Euros/month on utilities for me. Say it's about as much for fuel if you have to drive every day. Luckily I can get to work using my feet. Not great, not terrible.