| > Are people actually going to freeze? If I had to guess, I'd say much more than usual, but not a calamitous amount like millions or anything. Every winter, elderly who can't take good care of themselves succumb to cold or illness. For one winter, I'd say that most average people will be able to survive, albeit uncomfortably doing things like burning through their remaining savings or getting deeper into debt, huddling in bed together or wearing thick layers indoors, and finding trees to chop down for wood if desperate. This prediction is just for 1 winter. If this situation lasts until the next winter, people/governments will be even more screwed financially by then and the outcome will likely be calamitous then. > My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people. Real economies aren't video games that have a pause button. We learned during Covid that shutdowns that are labeled as temporary are not so. Supply chains get ruined: machines and spare parts and needed chemicals get harder and harder to find. Businesses can't afford to pay rent and wages for months with no income and have to shut down. Truly skilled employees with real domain knowledge use the shutdown to retire early or change careers and their knowledge of processes is lost. Etc. And this isn't a normal time where the governments of the world can really go further and extend themselves to really help and minimize the impact: they blew themselves out financially overreacting to Covid and are insisting on blowing out whatever remaining financial resources they might have to endlessly signal their virtue against Putin. |