[cannaceo]

Someone has been reading their Zeihan! As a counterpoint--do you think there are other export-led countries such as China that are more than willing to guarantee the transit of their goods in exchange for people continuing to buy them? I think the answer to that question is clear.

[mikewarot]

China doesn't have a blue water Navy, and there are the ring of islands around it that can limit its access to the rest of the world. They are very dependent on energy imports, and seem to be mismanaging their food supply in a way that is going to result in tragedy if they are ever subject to trade sanctions.

Like Russia, they have a credible nuclear threat, but no other means of projecting power around the world.

[tablespoon]

> China doesn't have a blue water Navy, and there are the ring of islands around it that can limit its access to the rest of the world.

IIRC, they're getting close to having a blue water navy.

Also that ring of islands may not be as impregnable as you assume: "According to a 2018 United States Department of Defense report to Congress, the People's Liberation Army's Anti Access/Area Denial military capabilities aimed at the first island chain are its most robust" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain).

> They are very dependent on energy imports, and seem to be mismanaging their food supply in a way that is going to result in tragedy if they are ever subject to trade sanctions.

Crippling trade sanctions against China are about as likely as crippling trade sanctions against the US.

> Like Russia, they have a credible nuclear threat, but no other means of projecting power around the world.

Yet.

[marcosdumay]

Do you think countries will have a hard time stopping privately organized pirates? Or do you fear privateers? (What country would fight against international commerce and manage to stay powerful?)

[mikewarot]

I think both pirates and privateers are possible. State sponsored warfare by other means (privateers) has deep historical roots.

I think the value of having a US or allied flagged vessel is going to radically increase in value, as it implies a possibility of retribution in force.

[upsidesinclude]

While you make a valid point, there is an important distinction to make clear: the US ensures global trade, much of it contrary to US interest. If you question this consider that the US is the agent enforcing freedom of navigable waters around the world. All other partners in this effort are in subsidy.

Save your comment on embargoes! Those that are in force are pretty easily justified from a US perspective and hardly tip scales in terms of total trade. (Cuba stands as a lesson on threatening US lands with violence)

The same if controlled by China or Russia would look immensely different. No argument to the contrary holds water. Their ideas of trade and free enterprise are far more constrained.

[DavidPiper]

Ha! I was going to write exactly the same thing. I've watched a few of his talks and bought one of his books the other day.

General question about Zeihan -- how substantial is his work? I think he makes compelling arguments and speaks/writes very well, but as a non-US citizen I don't really have enough historical or even present-day context to know where he sits on the hyperbole-realism scale.

He's very thought-provoking though, regardless.

[mikewarot]

The population pyramids and demographic arguments seem to be rock solid. I've watched a ton of his appearances on YouTube going back almost a decade, and he doesn't vary his story, except to accommodate facts as they became known, it's very consistent.

I'm worried about people in the rest of the world... even here in the least climate effected part of the US, I know the next decade or two are going to be rough, especially if our leadership fails to improve.

I'm fairly certain he's right on almost everything. I haven't found any huge nits to pick.