[mikewarot]

China doesn't have a blue water Navy, and there are the ring of islands around it that can limit its access to the rest of the world. They are very dependent on energy imports, and seem to be mismanaging their food supply in a way that is going to result in tragedy if they are ever subject to trade sanctions.

Like Russia, they have a credible nuclear threat, but no other means of projecting power around the world.

[tablespoon]

> China doesn't have a blue water Navy, and there are the ring of islands around it that can limit its access to the rest of the world.

IIRC, they're getting close to having a blue water navy.

Also that ring of islands may not be as impregnable as you assume: "According to a 2018 United States Department of Defense report to Congress, the People's Liberation Army's Anti Access/Area Denial military capabilities aimed at the first island chain are its most robust" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_island_chain).

> They are very dependent on energy imports, and seem to be mismanaging their food supply in a way that is going to result in tragedy if they are ever subject to trade sanctions.

Crippling trade sanctions against China are about as likely as crippling trade sanctions against the US.

> Like Russia, they have a credible nuclear threat, but no other means of projecting power around the world.

Yet.

[marcosdumay]

Do you think countries will have a hard time stopping privately organized pirates? Or do you fear privateers? (What country would fight against international commerce and manage to stay powerful?)

[mikewarot]

I think both pirates and privateers are possible. State sponsored warfare by other means (privateers) has deep historical roots.

I think the value of having a US or allied flagged vessel is going to radically increase in value, as it implies a possibility of retribution in force.