[ClumsyPilot]

> Vote for politicians who promise punishing bike theft with multi-year prison sentences

Please don't - this is typical 'tough on crime' trick: promise long sentences, so easy - longer sentence-less crime, right? Wrong. Sentenses are useless if no-one ever gets caught. Look at countries with the toughest sentenses in the world, and you will find they have loads of crime

You actually have to use your brain, and think and plan, on how to make sure criminals are caught. You have to take real action like training investigators, installing trackers, registering property, etc.

For example in UK concervatives have been in power for 12 years, punishment got much harsher but crime is growing because they have cut police numbers, and you chance of getting caught is ~0%. The longer people get away with crime, the better they become at crime. Now we have a large 'talent pool' of highly trained thieves.

[The-Bus]

(I think the poster was being facetious)

[amadeuspagel]

> Please don't - this is typical 'tough on crime' trick: promise long sentences, so easy - longer sentence-less crime, right? Wrong. Sentenses are useless if no-one ever gets caught. Look at countries with the toughest sentenses in the world, and you will find they have loads of crime

Perhaps the causality goes the other way here? Perhaps suffering under loads of crime makes people vote for tough sentences?

[bluecalm]

Idk, it seems theft is low in countries where they cut hands for it.

Bike theft is a very harmful crime. It stops the move to healthier lifestyle, it leaves people, often poor ones who don't have cars without means of transportation and it cause many to not commute by bike.

I want aggressive policing, including trap bikes set up by the police to fish out potential thieves and lock them for years once caught, alternatively make them wear GPS locator all the time. I want them to feel fear every time they think about stealing. Maybe empty "tough on crime" promise isn't enough but it's surely better than typical approach of "let's all think about those poor thieves" or victim blaming (just lock your bike with 2 U-locks and keep your eyes on it all the time if you don't want it stolen).

[ClumsyPilot]

> Bike theft is a very harmful crime.

Yes it is, but I disagree that turning bike theft into a 20-year sentence is going to help.

> Idk, it seems theft is low in countries where they cut hands for it.

Russia has 99% conviction rate, long sentences and torture in prisons, yet crime rate is sky high. US has more prisoner and tougher sentenses than UK, but UK has less crime

Half the people here are engineers, think like one, about systemic solutions and not revenge. Crime is a business, it only happens because its profitable.

You could setup a city-wide LoRaWAN bike tracking network for $100,000, you could hand out $20 trackers to every cyclist and weld them to the frame, from the inside if you have to. You could produce airtags-compatiable trackers, register every bike and check them periodically, etc.

You could install safe cycle storage throughout the city, that is alarmed and has cameras and calls the police when it detects sound of angle grinder.

Thousands of different solutions are possible.

[bluecalm]

You're repeating the old trope that tough punishment doesn't work. Look at the theft statistics though:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/theft/

Neither USA nor UK have tough punishment for theft. Theft is different than violent crime as that is most often caused by emotions/rage/etc. While theft is more calculated. It makes sense there is little consideration to punishment when committing the former but more when engaging in the latter.

Some people want to steal. Bikes are currently one of the easiest targets but if you make those difficult to steal they will move to another attractive thing like catalytic converters or purses until you lock everything. Aggressive policing and punishment wasn't tried yet in Western countries when it comes to theft. That would involve setting traps for thieves and taking the crime seriously instead of making naive calculation about the value of stolen items and ignoring long term cost and damage to social structure.

[ClumsyPilot]

> Aggressive policing and punishment wasn't tried yet in Western countries when it comes to theft.

What is the basis for your certainty? We've done research on the subject, we know that certainty of punishment is a lot more effective than severity.

Noone thinks 'ow yeah, I am gonna do a year in jail', everyone thinks they will get away. I am not against setting decoy bikes that are actually traps, but thievs will learn to tell them apart. US police uses sting operations against hookers and drug dealers all the time, and there is no shortage of either.

https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/deterrence-in...

> ignoring long term cost and damage to social structure

You could try that, but you cant just have a special calculation for one crime. Then we must equally apply it to corporate misbehaviour, like illegally selling customer data or manipulating the market.

[bluecalm]

I talked to police when I and my girlfriend were victims of a robbery. I have a few friends among lawyers (judges, attorneys and prosecutors). All of them say that the reason the police don't go after theft is that even if they catch them the courts are going to release them back or slap them on the wrist. Repeated thieves only go to jail if you collect series of cases and then they are back into it after half a year or whatever sentence they get.

The paper you linked doesn't mention aggressive, proactive policing. It wasn't tried anywhere in the Western world. It mentioned punishment comparison in UK, Sweden and US and is about general crime. All those countries have similar punishment and attitude to theft. Meanwhile countries where they cut hands or has done so in recent past has very little theft.

I tend to agree it's more important to catch thieves than punish them harshly but the point is we are not doing either so I vote for people who at least acknowledge it's a problem.

[kyleee]

yeah some good old sting operations would be great to see