[ClumsyPilot]

> Bike theft is a very harmful crime.

Yes it is, but I disagree that turning bike theft into a 20-year sentence is going to help.

> Idk, it seems theft is low in countries where they cut hands for it.

Russia has 99% conviction rate, long sentences and torture in prisons, yet crime rate is sky high. US has more prisoner and tougher sentenses than UK, but UK has less crime

Half the people here are engineers, think like one, about systemic solutions and not revenge. Crime is a business, it only happens because its profitable.

You could setup a city-wide LoRaWAN bike tracking network for $100,000, you could hand out $20 trackers to every cyclist and weld them to the frame, from the inside if you have to. You could produce airtags-compatiable trackers, register every bike and check them periodically, etc.

You could install safe cycle storage throughout the city, that is alarmed and has cameras and calls the police when it detects sound of angle grinder.

Thousands of different solutions are possible.

[bluecalm]

You're repeating the old trope that tough punishment doesn't work. Look at the theft statistics though:

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/theft/

Neither USA nor UK have tough punishment for theft. Theft is different than violent crime as that is most often caused by emotions/rage/etc. While theft is more calculated. It makes sense there is little consideration to punishment when committing the former but more when engaging in the latter.

Some people want to steal. Bikes are currently one of the easiest targets but if you make those difficult to steal they will move to another attractive thing like catalytic converters or purses until you lock everything. Aggressive policing and punishment wasn't tried yet in Western countries when it comes to theft. That would involve setting traps for thieves and taking the crime seriously instead of making naive calculation about the value of stolen items and ignoring long term cost and damage to social structure.

[ClumsyPilot]

> Aggressive policing and punishment wasn't tried yet in Western countries when it comes to theft.

What is the basis for your certainty? We've done research on the subject, we know that certainty of punishment is a lot more effective than severity.

Noone thinks 'ow yeah, I am gonna do a year in jail', everyone thinks they will get away. I am not against setting decoy bikes that are actually traps, but thievs will learn to tell them apart. US police uses sting operations against hookers and drug dealers all the time, and there is no shortage of either.

https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/deterrence-in...

> ignoring long term cost and damage to social structure

You could try that, but you cant just have a special calculation for one crime. Then we must equally apply it to corporate misbehaviour, like illegally selling customer data or manipulating the market.

[bluecalm]

I talked to police when I and my girlfriend were victims of a robbery. I have a few friends among lawyers (judges, attorneys and prosecutors). All of them say that the reason the police don't go after theft is that even if they catch them the courts are going to release them back or slap them on the wrist. Repeated thieves only go to jail if you collect series of cases and then they are back into it after half a year or whatever sentence they get.

The paper you linked doesn't mention aggressive, proactive policing. It wasn't tried anywhere in the Western world. It mentioned punishment comparison in UK, Sweden and US and is about general crime. All those countries have similar punishment and attitude to theft. Meanwhile countries where they cut hands or has done so in recent past has very little theft.

I tend to agree it's more important to catch thieves than punish them harshly but the point is we are not doing either so I vote for people who at least acknowledge it's a problem.

[kyleee]

yeah some good old sting operations would be great to see