[lkrubner]

NBER typically waits a year before declaring a recession. They want to make sure they have all the facts. Many economic statistics are revised several times, and don't settle to their final form till 6 months after they were announced (not even mentioning the statistics that get revised 20 years later). It wasn't till December of 2008 that they announced the recession, which they said had begun in December of 2007.

[throw93232]

Well, that really is just technicality, is it? We could call it recession now, and later correct it, if data show something else.

I am worried we will get another wave of censorship about "recession conspiracy".

[dahfizz]

> I am worried we will get another wave of censorship about "recession conspiracy".

Yup, without a doubt. Anyone talking about a recession will be an anti-biden conspiracy theorist. Then, shortly after the election, they will admit there is a recession but that they are doing a really good job combating it.

[ericmay]

A quick search on the New York Times website (nyt.com) shows quite a few articles discussing recession. Just search "recession". And you can see different articles and different contributors discussing various points of view.

Examples:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/opinion/recession-not-for...

It is true, as the Biden folks argued, that the nation’s official recession arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, has yet to call one, because it relies on many more signals. Still, it sure sounded as if the Biden team was splitting hairs. (It's a recession opinion)

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/opinion/recession-gdp-eco...

But we won’t be. That’s not how recessions are defined; more important, it’s not how they should be defined. It’s possible that the people who actually decide whether we’re in a recession — more about them in a minute — will eventually declare that a recession began in the United States in the first half of this year, although that’s unlikely given other economic data. But they won’t base their decision solely on whether we’ve had two successive quarters of falling real G.D.P. (It's not a recession opinion)

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/business/biden-remarks-re...

That is true — not every recession includes two full quarters of negative growth, and in 1947 the economy shrank for two quarters without a recession declaration. But typically, two quarters of contraction lead to a recession call. (It's a recession opinion)

Stock Market Drop Accelerated as Recession Seemed More Likely

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/stock-market-rec...

etc.

Personally I think we're in a recession and/or facing economic headwinds due to a lot of different factors. I also don't know that it matters. If Biden came out today and said "we're in a recession" what exactly has changed? What specific actions should be taken so that we're not in a recession? Should we never be in a recession? Is that possible? If we are in a recession then why is that the case? Can anyone even point to specific actions that any organization or person has taken to cause a recession? I mean the Russian invasion of Ukraine is for sure a big deal in the global economy. Interest rates rising is a big factor. Do we point to those and say "those caused a recession"? If we do, then what do we do about it? Lower interest rates and lift sanctions on Russia so we're no in a recession?

And recession discussions are all over mainstream news and extensively covered by journalists and bloggers so I'm really confused as to why anyone who is talking about a recession would be an anti-Biden conspiracy theorist. Is the entire US public square an anti-Biden conspiracy since everyone is talking about it?

[mjburgess]

Delusions of persecution are strong here. Who on earth would say that disagreeing with the WH on the technical definition of recession is a conspiracy theory?

[roleplayer]

The existence of covid was called a conspiracy theory at one point, the term is used so loosely that it has lost all meaning and just used as a sort of cognitive stop sign. You could say the widespread use of the term conspiracy theory to mean something other than literally a theory that there is a group conspiring about something is itself a conspiracy and it would be consistent with mainstream usage, blame the people who watered the term down to be meaningless

[mjburgess]

I havent experienced it being meaningless. I do see this comment often, and I universally encounter it said by conspiracy theorists or their apologists. Ie., those people with unjustified conspiracy narratives born of delusions of paranoia.

The 'theory' that china deliberately manufactured and released covid is a conspiracy theory. I have not seen COVID called one, nor even, the idea that a lab in china was researching it, nor that its release is accidental.

There being a pandemic, that a lab is somewhere researching COVID, that a lab may have accidentally released COVID do not contain any conspiracies.

The phrase is a very clear term of art in my view: a conspiracy theory is a story about how the world works which places implausible conspiracies at the heart of its causal structure; in the manner of movie plots; and presents a paranoid style of reasoning in which major events, and their distal effects, are the deliberate decisions of a small number of people.

Conspiracy theories, and theorists, are by definition engaged in an epistemic vice; a pseudoscientific activity of explanation; a kind of intellectualised schizoprehnia.

[mrcheesebreeze]

many people, nowadays if you disagree with the current president his entire "side" will insult you.

It was a conspiracy theory, according to liberals, to believe that the vaccine would be mandatory and that it would not stop the disease.

Remember people saying that were called crazy not long ago.

It was a conspiracy that russia would invade ukraine according to conservatives until it happened.

Speculation gets you insulted until you are right.

Now if you say there is a recession biden worshippers will assume this is some kind of personal attack.

[mjburgess]

Is the vaccine mandatory? Who said it would "stop" the disease?

Which "conservatives" said Russia wouldn't invade? The realist view of IR is, largely, the conservative one -- and many conservatives were saying Russia was strongly inclined to engage in this sort of politics.

I have no idea what you're talking about. This just seems like apologetics for conspiracy theories.

"'They said' X was a conspiracy, and it isnt! When I say Y is, soon you'll find out it isnt too!".

Well 'They' didnt say it was; these mythologies of persecution reveal a lot.

[keneda7]

Not the original person you responded to by in my eyes when you say the vaccinated can't get covid and the vaccinated cant spread covid you are implying it will stop the disease but again that is just my opinion. Both the CDC director and our current president said these things...

[mrcheesebreeze]

1) its mandatory if you want to keep your job in many places, and if you want to travel. Its not a choice.

2) its been claimed multiple times the vaccine could prevent the spread of covid or gaining it if I remember correctly.

3) fox news and many other groups claimed russia wouldn't invade. many disagreed but that is beside the point, we are talking about the slander of speculation.

4) that quote is a useless flanderization of my argument, I claimed many groups use the conspiracy argument to silence speculation.

as we see now its highly likely we are in recession, thats hardly a conspiracy theory I am pushing.

[warning26]

Yeah this guy’s a nutcase. The Biden admin repeatedly said Russia would invade Ukraine amidst Russia’s persistent denials.

[throwaway6734]

Officially declaring a recession makes it more likely for a recession to occur

[alasdair_]

Recessions are almost always declared months after they occur, not before.

[ChrisLomont]

There's historical evidence that calling something a recession, if it is not, tends to push it into a recession.

[bluefirebrand]

It seems unlikely that theres sufficient evidence to claim causality here.

Honestly? If you say "we're in a recession" and then it turns out it is or becomes a recession, it sounds like you were right. Not that you caused it.

[ChrisLomont]

Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227.

Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.

[checkyoursudo]

This contradicts my best evidence based on the widespread joke that "economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions." Big, if true.

[ChrisLomont]

Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227.

Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.

[ccvannorman]

This seems like a great example of anti-data .. do you have any source at all to back this up?

[ChrisLomont]

Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227.

Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.

[saalweachter]

It's also worth noting that the recession that started in Dec '07 was definitely a factor in the election of Nov '08 despite not being called til Dec '08.

It's reasonable to think that the fact of a recession is of more electoral consequence than the declaration; I'm a little curious if the common definition or the NBER definition correlates with incumbent (dis) advantage better.