[bluefirebrand]

It seems unlikely that theres sufficient evidence to claim causality here.

Honestly? If you say "we're in a recession" and then it turns out it is or becomes a recession, it sounds like you were right. Not that you caused it.

[ChrisLomont]

Here's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227.

Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.