[burgerbrain]

To say that calculating the trajectories of decaying orbits around earth is hard is kind of an understatement. There are too many factors, you have to remember we're basically talking the air resistance of a possibly tumbling abstract shape that will soon be tumbling rather chaotically once any appreciable atmospheric effects take place. And that's just the start.

[adolph]

No cone of uncertainty?

[Encryptor]

Picture this: an 11 ton tank of gas falls into your house and burns it to the ground, and all you're told is: "There are too many factors, you have to remember we're basically talking [about] the air resistance of a possibly tumbling abstract shape that [was] tumbling rather chaotically [when] any appreciable atmospheric effects [were taking] place. And that's just the start".

[maaku]

I'm sorry you don't like it, but it's a fact. Predicting orbital decay to such accuracy is simply impossible.

[burgerbrain]

In no part of that picture does the reality of the situation change.