[Encryptor]

Picture this: an 11 ton tank of gas falls into your house and burns it to the ground, and all you're told is: "There are too many factors, you have to remember we're basically talking [about] the air resistance of a possibly tumbling abstract shape that [was] tumbling rather chaotically [when] any appreciable atmospheric effects [were taking] place. And that's just the start".

[maaku]

I'm sorry you don't like it, but it's a fact. Predicting orbital decay to such accuracy is simply impossible.

[burgerbrain]

In no part of that picture does the reality of the situation change.