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by JumpCrisscross 1426 days ago
> hope it has spillover effects into the US

Probably not, and for good reason. If Europe is moving first, it makes sense to wait and see how their approach fairs. We’ve learned a lot about what works and more about what doesn’t with GDPR, a bit more from v2 in California.
1 comments
spywaregorilla 1426 days ago
But at the same time I expect the iphones will all be usb-c compatible by 2024 globally, not just in the EU

I'm not sure how much to expect in the US. Is a one time VPN connection all you'll need in order to get sideloading working?

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freedomben 1426 days ago
I agree, I think it will spill over. It may harm the app store revenue, but it's going to result in a big adoption of Apple hardware by people who previously wouldn't have. When Apple loosening the reins doesn't result in Armageddon like so many people here seem to think it will, US customers will also pressure Apple to similar policies, and they will do it.

It probably will hurt app store revenues, but Apple makes such a premium on hardware that it may make up or even exceed the losses from software competition.

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spywaregorilla 1426 days ago
> It probably will hurt app store revenues, but Apple makes such a premium on hardware that it may make up or even exceed the losses from software competition.

Seems very unlikely to me. the profit margin on app store tax is going to be extremely high. The expert witness at the epic games trial estimated an 80% profit margin on 20 billion dollars of revenue. Comes out to $16B profit out of their total 25ish. That doesn't just disappear if apple allows sideloading, but it could easily shrink a great a deal. Even if apple somehow manages to gain greater market share, I just don't see it coming out as a net positive for them.

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freedomben 1426 days ago
> Comes out to $16B profit out of their total 25ish

Oh man, that's a high percentage. I was under the impression it was closer to 50%. With those numbers, you may be right.

Although, I assume they will heavily market their own store as the only "true" app store and only secure one, etc, and a large amount of customers will stick with just theirs, so I would expect it wouldn't take too major of a hit, although if big names like Epic boycott the App Store that could definitely mess up that strategy.

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spywaregorilla 1426 days ago
It's not that they need to boycott it. It's that they need to offer it from 30% less through their own channels. When there's real competition in the market, apple will likely need to adjust their fee strategy.
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kmlx 1426 days ago
> I expect the iphones will all be usb-c compatible by 2024 globally

or maybe they just drop usbc altogether?

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