[freedomben]

I agree, I think it will spill over. It may harm the app store revenue, but it's going to result in a big adoption of Apple hardware by people who previously wouldn't have. When Apple loosening the reins doesn't result in Armageddon like so many people here seem to think it will, US customers will also pressure Apple to similar policies, and they will do it.

It probably will hurt app store revenues, but Apple makes such a premium on hardware that it may make up or even exceed the losses from software competition.

[spywaregorilla]

> It probably will hurt app store revenues, but Apple makes such a premium on hardware that it may make up or even exceed the losses from software competition.

Seems very unlikely to me. the profit margin on app store tax is going to be extremely high. The expert witness at the epic games trial estimated an 80% profit margin on 20 billion dollars of revenue. Comes out to $16B profit out of their total 25ish. That doesn't just disappear if apple allows sideloading, but it could easily shrink a great a deal. Even if apple somehow manages to gain greater market share, I just don't see it coming out as a net positive for them.

[freedomben]

> Comes out to $16B profit out of their total 25ish

Oh man, that's a high percentage. I was under the impression it was closer to 50%. With those numbers, you may be right.

Although, I assume they will heavily market their own store as the only "true" app store and only secure one, etc, and a large amount of customers will stick with just theirs, so I would expect it wouldn't take too major of a hit, although if big names like Epic boycott the App Store that could definitely mess up that strategy.

[spywaregorilla]

It's not that they need to boycott it. It's that they need to offer it from 30% less through their own channels. When there's real competition in the market, apple will likely need to adjust their fee strategy.