[Sebb767]

> Normally, valuing a stock is hugely complex. But every once in a while, circumstances come along that make the math relatively straightsforward[sic]. This is one of those moments.

Technically, we just moved the really hard part to the question of "what will Twitter be worth if the deal fails". For this to work as value strategy, you either need to be really good at estimating that hard price or assign a really low chance to it.

[BbzzbB]

That's only part two of the hard question, part one requires knowledge of M&A law, Delaware corporate precedents and Delaware chancellery psychology/game-theory to establish odds of the deal being forced, cancelled or in-between. Then part three is establishing the probability Elon Musk of all people will follow thru any given ruling and what happens if he doesn't play ball.

I wonder if it's not easier to just project cash flows into the future. Or to play a number of other merger situation with more reliable participants, like Activision-Microsoft for 23% upside (versus Twitter's 42%).