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That's only part two of the hard question, part one requires knowledge of M&A law, Delaware corporate precedents and Delaware chancellery psychology/game-theory to establish odds of the deal being forced, cancelled or in-between. Then part three is establishing the probability Elon Musk of all people will follow thru any given ruling and what happens if he doesn't play ball.

I wonder if it's not easier to just project cash flows into the future. Or to play a number of other merger situation with more reliable participants, like Activision-Microsoft for 23% upside (versus Twitter's 42%).