[SecuredMarvin]

I wonder no more why my people, after Habeck announcing more than a uncomfortable winter, are united in supporting the people of Ukraine. He offered suffering for a cause. While the morale is quite different, the social mechanics repeat.

[yomkippur]

He might have decided so but the people don't share his cause. They are suffering with the heatwave and will also freeze during winter. Time will tell just how far his cause is going to last (it wont)

People in the West are quick to forget that fight against Nazism wasn't unanimous. Many in America supported it. Many in Western Europe supported it.

It was only when there was economic interests at stake they jumped in the war. Not to save people from Nazism (although this is what their decendants have been taught in schools) but to protect their own interest.

Very few occasions countries enter into a war based on some goodwill or emotion. It just so happens that a common enemy and common goal appear enough to threaten their selfish interests that momentarily, countries rally around it.

I can already see public opinions sliding against Zelensky here in the West. People's livelihood is impacted and not everybody feels that they need to suffer for a foreign country that they are far away from. For countries who border with Russia its a different story.

[jokabrink]

But its a lot more than just about the "need to suffer for a foreign country", isn't it? Its about the geopolitical interest of Europe. To be dependent on an autocratic foreign power (in this case gas) shows the problems.

For example, if Russia takes over Ukraine, it would make Russia by far the largest exporter of wheat in the world (from 22% to 33%) (second: US 16%) [1]. They would gain additional power in other market commodities like corn, sunflower, steel, etc.

Russia is already playing with their resource exports, I expect them to use it more whether or not they managed to achieve their goals regarding Ukraine. And other partnerships are building and increasing too like BRICS, CSTO, SCO.

Step back and think for a second: Countries staying neutral because they are dependent on the aggressors export resources are exactly that type of influence that superpowers like to have.

Sources: [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exp...

[yomkippur]

Yes but if they piss off Putin arent they already forgone that scenario? It's guaranteed that Russia will target countries that helped Ukraine by weaponizing its captured commodities. So it puzzles me why rest of Europe would do this because NATO and Russia is NOT going to engage in WW3 like so many people have you believe.

Europe will go on its own way while experiencing shortfalls and Russia will go on theirs. They both suffer but in different ways. Europe's middle class will pay the price for this war. Russia's entire population pays the price. The United States benefit massively here 1) destroying an old enemy 2) several new customers to buy their energy and food supplies from.

I think whats clear is BRICS emerging as its own sustainable barter economy of sorts (its sure as hell not going to be able to push its reserve currency beyond its own borders) with some onramp/offramp to precious metals that becomes impossible to track when melted down and cleared in second/third tier merchants.

Nobody wins from this multi-polar world order, its really bad for the global economy and the middle class suddenly finds itself unable to afford the lifestyle that they enjoyed not too long ago. (ex. PS5 is prohibitvely expensive, think back to PS1, PS2 how affordable and liquid the supply was).

This is the new norm, get ready for even more expensive stuff you took for granted. Eventually it will cause a deflation as boomers wallets dry up as their pension is in limbo. The biggest losers will be the MZ generation.

[tim333]

I think you're overthinking it a bit. A world where aggressive dictators are invading nearby countries not good. Peace and prosperity are better. Hence most of the world is trying to help fix things.

The lifestyle thing will sort itself out - we've had a couple of hits from covid and then the war but it'll pass.

[ogogmad]

I consider it a good thing in this case.

Germany could try rationing its natural gas to ensure that everyone gets at least a minimum amount. Could that work?