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by jokabrink
1429 days ago
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But its a lot more than just about the "need to suffer for a foreign country", isn't it? Its about the geopolitical interest of Europe. To be dependent on an autocratic foreign power (in this case gas) shows the problems. For example, if Russia takes over Ukraine, it would make Russia by far the largest exporter of wheat in the world (from 22% to 33%) (second: US 16%) [1]. They would gain additional power in other market commodities like corn, sunflower, steel, etc. Russia is already playing with their resource exports, I expect them to use it more whether or not they managed to achieve their goals regarding Ukraine. And other partnerships are building and increasing too like BRICS, CSTO, SCO. Step back and think for a second: Countries staying neutral because they are dependent on the aggressors export resources are exactly that type of influence that superpowers like to have. Sources:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exp... |
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Europe will go on its own way while experiencing shortfalls and Russia will go on theirs. They both suffer but in different ways. Europe's middle class will pay the price for this war. Russia's entire population pays the price. The United States benefit massively here 1) destroying an old enemy 2) several new customers to buy their energy and food supplies from.
I think whats clear is BRICS emerging as its own sustainable barter economy of sorts (its sure as hell not going to be able to push its reserve currency beyond its own borders) with some onramp/offramp to precious metals that becomes impossible to track when melted down and cleared in second/third tier merchants.
Nobody wins from this multi-polar world order, its really bad for the global economy and the middle class suddenly finds itself unable to afford the lifestyle that they enjoyed not too long ago. (ex. PS5 is prohibitvely expensive, think back to PS1, PS2 how affordable and liquid the supply was).
This is the new norm, get ready for even more expensive stuff you took for granted. Eventually it will cause a deflation as boomers wallets dry up as their pension is in limbo. The biggest losers will be the MZ generation.