Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by shakezula 1443 days ago
That’s an interesting data point. makes me wonder what other unconventional metrics could be considered to get a temperature on our economy.
7 comments

A friend used to work for Korn Ferry, a publicly-traded headhunting firm. She said that their stock was a leading indicator of economic trends because firms halt executive recruiting efforts as they can see warning signs for their business. This happens before the clients issue quarterly revenue guidance that makes their expectations explicit.
good lord. do they refer to themselves as a “headhunting” company, or is that your wording? it’s sort of terrifying, to be completely honest.
"Executive recruiter" is the term used in PR. Informally "headhunter" is used by recruiters, employers, and candidates.

Similarly nonexecutive tech talent recruiting firms are often referred to as "body shops".

Ironic terminology is pervasive in business. Recent trends toward sensitivity are shifting patterns somewhat, but the old terms still find use.

I almost used the more PC term, 'executive recruiting'. But many/most people I know refer to them as 'headhunters'. At least some in the industry object to this term, but it is still widely used by people at large.
When I was young, I thought headhunter was the coolest job title ever. Now my wife is a recruiter, and I think of her as a headhunter. My mental picture of her day is a lot more violent than reality.
Correct. It's not even a pejorative, it's so standard.

At least I'm not a "heavy user" at a fast food chain (also real).

Verified:

"Cash Cows: Burger Joints Call Them 'Heavy Users' -- but Not to Their Faces"

By Jennifer Ordonez Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

Jan. 12, 2000 12:20 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB947636708123070129

This is related, if not exactly on point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index.
Garbage/refuse volumes are sometimes used as a leading indicator of GDP.
Every answer you will get in this thread is wrong because once something becomes well known enough to be tracked, it stops being a “naive indicator”

The warden buffet underwear thing being a prime example. Every Walmart merchandiser now knows that “rule of thumb” and prices underwear against that “common knowledge”

Look at (inflation-adjusted) price then, rather than total sales volume or units.
I mean, sure. I wish you luck in forecasting with that.
Consumer goods prices swinging low relative to inputs, profit ratios falling, or price and quantity moving in ways to suggest weaker demand, should all be determinable with some degree of confidence.

That requires richer data than strictly following sales volumes, of course.

But the basic principle is still one of supply and demand, and following both shifts. The ability of retailers to adjust prices in near-real-time to demand shifts changes the behaviour somewhat. It doesn't demolish the concept of market function.

Utility shutoffs are a big one.
"The Incidence of Extreme Economic Stress: Evidence from Utility Disconnections"

Steve Cicala (2021)

https://www.nber.org/papers/w28422

cardboard