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by khendron 1461 days ago
Unless getting in and out of VR becomes as easy as putting one and taking off a pair of sunglasses, it's never going to become mainstream. Some serious disruption is going to be required to get there.

Compare it to the PDAs (e.g., Palm Pilot) of the late 90s early 2000s. They were cool, but hard to use. Though they were popular, they were far from mainstream. Then the iPhone came out, and a few years later everybody had a computer in their pocket. VR sorely needs a similar disruption.

5 comments

I used to have a Newton, I tried developing for it in college. It was terrible but I learned so much from it. It was one of those things where everybody had to tell you how dumb you were to have it or use it. I had a similar experience with smart watches and believe it or not the first generation Samsung Note. I remember someone telling me I was ridiculous to have such a "big phone".

I don't know which thing will work out and which won't, but people telling you why they won't or will never use it is not that meaningful to me. I have seen too many things in my life that people say they will never use become quite common. I have always had my best successes on new technologies so I am always rooting for people trying to create new hardware.

FWIW I love my Quest 2 and use it every day. Your mileage will vary.

I have one of those big phones with 6inch+ screen (they're pretty mainstream these days) and I wish I had something smaller. Hard af to use with single hand and screen is still pretty small for comfortably reading anything or consuming media (you have to hold it very close to your face for too long to be comfortable). Wish I had bought something cheaper and smaller and gotten a tablet with the extra money I saved. I'm buying a tablet anyways now.
Frankly I'd pay out the nose for a flagship phone with a 16:10 screen like the original Note.
The Note4 was the best phone I ever had as it had: 1. Large screen 2. Didn't really need a case as it didnt have curved glass 3. had a plastic back with texturing for grip / metal frame 4. Easily replacable battery, could pop off the back in a second. 5. Sd card 6. The pen was cool

When I say it it didn't need a case, I dropped that phone many times, and the screen never cracked due to the metal rim. In the end as os update bricked it. Went to an s8 which was slippery as could be, with its glass back. Cracked both sides and short order, and from there on out I've needed a bulky case to wrap my delicate flower of a phone.. Damn.

I am in complete agreement. My Note 4 had by far the best smartphone display I've ever used. 2560x1440 with zero screen wasted on camera or navigation buttons. I keep mine in a display cabinet and every few months take it out and enjoy just how huge the screen looks despite the fact I can hold it vertically in one hand. Dropping a spare battery in my pocket for a day hike when I'm going to run the GPS for hours. MHL giving me lag-free HDMI-out with charging. True mass-storage USB mode where I can copy files and navigate the folder structure at the same time. I used mine until the screen was so yellow it looked like I dipped it in popcorn grease.
In 2015, Huawei had the Honor X2, a 7 inch, 16:10 screen phone.

I'd happily buy one again if it had modern specs.

https://m.gsmarena.com/huawei_mediapad_x2-7075.php

That's a 20:9 display and an SoC that was hot garbage when it was new two years ago.
>Unless getting in and out of VR becomes as easy as putting one and taking off a pair of sunglasses

In my opinion it already is. I have an OQ2 and play whatever the golf simulator is, and a sailboat simulator in it all the time, but it's exactly the type of quick, 2-3 minute sessions that used to be mobile games or tiktok. From lifting my laptop off of my laptop to starting a race in the sailboat game takes less than a minute, and almost all of that is just load times on the game.

(The sailing game is marineverse, btw. Lots of fun when its 115 degrees out in Phoenix and too hot to go on real water)

It's really not if you wear glasses.

I don't, wife does, it's always a production for her.

Get prescription lenses, they’re like $80
But i don’t wear glasses. So getting prescription lenses is just one more thing to deal with for when my wife wants to play beat Sabre.
Buy her a Quest for her birthday, I’m just trying to provide helpful suggestions here. I just use the included spacer and it works fine with my glasses and is quick to change out give that a shot.
Add one more thing to the long list of VR tech hurdles.
I don't believe VR going mainstream is really the point. And also why Meta's approach feels off to me. Even when you read Cyberpunk literature, the concept of a cyber decker is as rare as a modern day hacker.

As for the Ready Player One experience. There is a different issue to be addressed and that is the finite experience offered by modern day "games." Taking a look at Diablo Immortal and it should be clear of what little runway there is to live your life in VR. Experiences extended by lootboxes.

Even games that don't use that mechanism are bloated through artificial grinds. Economy resets and just lack of budget for story outside of 80hrs. Why even sink the development time in if you have the former to fuel profit margins?

There's a lot more to be said inside the scope of what XR is and how it will impact. And its not just comfort or accessibility preventing adoption. There is no killer app and it's the same with crypto. But that's more to do with the current limits of concepts we have relied on to get to this point.

Social VR aka “The Metaverse” doesn’t need loot boxes and fake internet points to be compelling. Those are tricks that devs use to hook you on an otherwise very underwhelming experience. Social VR has real people with voices and body language and that’s pretty much all you need. You can add activities like movie screens and party games as ice breakers but they aren’t necessary. The most used feature in social VR apps is a mirror.
I think our games have a too coarse grained degree of simulation.

The problem is that you want different levels of simulation at different times so developers just pick the easiest one to implement that is still fun. If there is an MMORPG you might want the ability to simulate actual cooking but at some point it becomes a grind and you just want to press a button instead of repeating the same recipe over and over again.

The minute, someone uses VR to gain/master skills 5x-10x times faster than regular users, everyone will switch to VR.

The minute, enterprises use VR to improve productivity, everyone will switch to VR.

I'm always astounded by the lack of imagination from smart people that they get so fixated on small things while completely missing the bigger picture.

That's how you end up with Grammar Nazis, REST Nazis, TDD Nazis, Security Nazis, Code Format Nazis.

Make no mistake, society needs people who are obsessed or paranoid about little things, but they aren't the ones you look up to or go to for next generation advances.

So, as usual I'll take any HN future prediction with grain of salt and stick to people who have created Trillion $ companies or built products used by Billions.

>The minute, someone uses VR to gain/master skills 5x-10x times faster than regular users, everyone will switch to VR. I have little doubt that this is the killer VR app that we just haven't found a way to deploy yet - Imagine, say, an auto manufacturer issuing a digital twin of their vehicle to mechanics that includes walkthroughs for each maintenance procedure. The scaffolding on both the production and consumption sides which would be necessary to support this are significant, though.
A mechanic can read a repair manual much faster than watching a walkthrough.
He isn't going to watch a walkthrough he is going to repair it in VR. Learning by doing.
AR for some mechanics is probably helpful in one way or the other.

But when you create a digital twin for traingin, VR or AR, it will be easier to teach a robot to do that job without any human. It might be that VR/AR is a short intermediate step, but robots are the future.

And i' still waiting for the master skill application. Were is it? What is it? Why does the lizard talk about tech stuff in his video only and not about what you will do with it? Guess why?

Full body tracking without extra equipment and much better hand tracking are on their way. Those are the keys to unlocking a lot of skill training. The other big hurdle is just building the software, someone with domain knowledge has to create Electrician Simulator 2023. Industry is doing this right now in a few areas, wider adoption will increase that pace.
I do see the industry training use cases.

But i think it will end up like 3d printing: Fun and niche for nerds and the professional versions are better and more expensive and only yused for their usecases.

s/The Minute/If

And even then, not so many people care about being productive or to master new skills.

once again, you are underestimating the potential.

When I say skills you are limiting your imagination drudge-work skills. Skills could also be Tennis, Dancing, Sex, Golf.

Productivity could also be fixing your car, bikes, plumbing.

VR is one of the few technologies which both lazy and active people can benefit.

Unless you put yourself in the category of a neck-beard who doesn't like moving from your lazy-boy and also don't like porn, the category of people who won't benefit from real-life VR is very tiny.

Once something benefits them, People will jump through all kinds of hoops to get them

I don't think I underestimate the tech. People were predicting mainstream flying cars by the year 2000s

I think tech bros are way overestimating the interest of people in general. Nobody's going to train for sex or sport in VR, it lacks 90% of the experience.

People want to live real world thing, not evolve in a virtual world alone with appendices that barely mimic real life sensations.

Flying cars depends on massive capital spending on infrastructure, manufacturing to build a thing only the top 1% ile can afford. Not to mention massive changes to law. There is also a big binary chasm to cross (fly as safe an airplanve vs not)

A $300 VR headset has none of those barriers and is open to millions of developers and can constantly iterate.

Understand the difference and you'll become a better investor.

Else you are just falling for the Availability Heuristic Fallacy

It’s more than just the ability to get in or out of VR — VR has space requirements for most applications; even if you’re standing still, you’ll need space around you for your arms to move. VR, in part, is a real estate problem.

I have a headset I bought a few years ago (PSVR), and while it’s easy enough to set up, I don’t want to rearrange my living room every time I use it.

This is mostly solved by going wireless which allows you to use your headset anywhere you have space. A lot of experiences are designed to work while seated or in very limited space as well. It is a bummer if you don’t have enough room for the really active experiences though but in my experience that’s the minority.
> This is mostly solved by going wireless which allows you to use your headset anywhere you have space.

I think you're missing what I'm saying: while I have space, the space I have requires some effort to make VR-ready. Wireless is interesting (I can use it in my backyard, for example), but that comes with its own set of caveats.