[jeffbee]

Real GDP has to shrink for it to be a recession. GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly. The Conference Board is not predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2022, and they just updated their forecasts a few days ago.

[mehrdada]

> GDP in the United States is currently growing strongly

Last quarter was -1.4% growth, so probably not growing strongly (but who knows, maybe just a blip...)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-gdp-growth-q1-116511...

[jeffbee]

And Q2 is anticipated to be +2.1%, based on late-Q2 analyses. One quarter of stochastic sign change does not get you a recession.

A more pessimistic view gives +1% for Q2: https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq...

[justinzollars]

Atlanta FED GDPNow recently downgraded expectations: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

This is typically an accurate measure.

[jeffbee]

Sure. And if GDP goes negative, and if employment falls etc etc then people will start saying recession. I was just trying to answer the GPs question, not predict whether or not this is a recession!

By the way the official declaration by the U.S. bureaucracies of the onset of a recession typically lags the actual onset by a year or so.