[JulianMorrison]

There may be a faster fall-off than you'd think, because of feedback effects. Same way film cameras stopped being popular and then you couldn't get the films, or get them developed, so they got more unpopular, repeat until extinct. If fuel stations start closing down and you can't get the parts, it won't matter if fuel cars have decades of good service life ahead.

[adrianN]

That is likely true for rich countries, but typically old cars get shipped to poorer countries where they continue to run for another decade or so. The infrastructure there will see good use for a while longer.

[normie3000]

> where they continue to run for another decade or so

Or another 50 years. The modern western disposable culture isn’t global, although is certainly envied by many who don’t have it.

[adrianN]

Of course some cars live essentially forever somewhere, but I think the fraction that passes the thirty year mark is rather small.

[JulianMorrison]

It's the oil infrastructure that will affect them, because it's global. If that goes away...

[wongarsu]

It won't go away, but there's good chances fuel gets a lot more expensive as production scales back.

[JulianMorrison]

Which is another feedback loop, high cost, shrinking demand, shrinking supply, rising cost.

Also oil has high fixed costs. Stations, tanker trucks, refineries. Fewer customers carrying them means they rise as a percentage of purchase price.

[ciupicri]

Assuming you can easily get parts.

[bambax]

Yes, that's what I'm thinking too. It's a vicious circle (or maybe a virtuous one?) but once fuel stations start closing in droves it will become very impractical to own a petrol car.

[zbrozek]

That cycle will undoubtedly be slower for vehicles than cameras. Much larger, much more expensive population, covering a broader range of niche cases. I think very highly of my EV, but I'm not under the illusion that all fossil fueled vehicles will evaporate quickly. Certainly I expect another 10-15 years out of my 22-year-old truck.

[Symbiote]

A 22 year old van is already too old to be driven in many European cities.

For example, vans must be manufactured on 1 January 2007 or later to be used in Copenhagen. In July the date will become 1 January 2012 [1].

That doesn't yet apply to cars, and I think the truck counts as a car. It does apply in some cities in Germany, where the limit depends on the fuel -- petrol cars are often limited to 30 years (1992), diesel to 2007.

I expect these regulations to tighten as electric cars become widespread, and the various exemptions to become more stringent.

[1] https://miljoezoner.dk/en/regulations-and-vehicles/regulatio...

And https://urbanaccessregulations.eu/

[zbrozek]

Probably, but I still expect it to be slower than the film camera sunset. If memory serves, it took about a decade for film to evaporate once film camera sales were dominated by digital cameras. I think it'll take 2-3 decades for transportation electricity to do the same to petrol. It's unfortunate, then, that cessation of ICE car sales is so far away.

[mateo1]

A petrol stations running costs are very low. They break even with 2% margins. Even if they go away, a 2m^3 tank at home will last you for a year or more. And if your typical full tank range of 500-600km is not enough, you can toss a few fuel cans in the trunk and travel across the continent without refueling.

The only way ICEs will go away is by hostile legislation, being regulated and taxed to death purely for ideological reasons, as is happening.

[adrianN]

Global warming is not an ideological reason. Neither is air pollution in densely populated areas.

[bambax]

> a 2m^3 tank at home

Err, what? I'm in Paris, I can't drill that kind of hole anywhere near my home. The article is about the EU; but I doubt most people can do that even in the US, except when you have a house in the middle of nowhere with lots of land around it.

[JulianMorrison]

Not to mention: huge underground tanks of gasoline are a fire and explosion hazard. They are an environmental hazard if they leak or spill. They require building to safety codes. They require trained and skilled operation. They need to be to insured.

[natch]

Purely ideological? What do you mean?