[zbrozek]

That cycle will undoubtedly be slower for vehicles than cameras. Much larger, much more expensive population, covering a broader range of niche cases. I think very highly of my EV, but I'm not under the illusion that all fossil fueled vehicles will evaporate quickly. Certainly I expect another 10-15 years out of my 22-year-old truck.

[Symbiote]

A 22 year old van is already too old to be driven in many European cities.

For example, vans must be manufactured on 1 January 2007 or later to be used in Copenhagen. In July the date will become 1 January 2012 [1].

That doesn't yet apply to cars, and I think the truck counts as a car. It does apply in some cities in Germany, where the limit depends on the fuel -- petrol cars are often limited to 30 years (1992), diesel to 2007.

I expect these regulations to tighten as electric cars become widespread, and the various exemptions to become more stringent.

[1] https://miljoezoner.dk/en/regulations-and-vehicles/regulatio...

And https://urbanaccessregulations.eu/

[zbrozek]

Probably, but I still expect it to be slower than the film camera sunset. If memory serves, it took about a decade for film to evaporate once film camera sales were dominated by digital cameras. I think it'll take 2-3 decades for transportation electricity to do the same to petrol. It's unfortunate, then, that cessation of ICE car sales is so far away.