[rat87]

No it's in Germanys interest to f*ck Russia up as much as they can financially (and in terms of weapon shipments ( in the hope it ends the war sooner. And diversify their energy.

Germany's intrest is for Ukraine to win as quick as possible

Before the war Germany at least had a reasonable sounding argument (peace through trade) but it's been proven totally wrong they need to admit they were wrong and move on

[alaricus]

Ukraine can't win.

[qsort]

By most reasonable metrics they are winning right now, so if I remember my modal logic correctly, this statement can't be too accurate.

[alaricus]

Ukraine is not winning right now. Unless your definition of winning is "slowly losing territory". Check the map: https://liveuamap.com/

[qsort]

I don't give a fuck about tactics and crap, this isn't Starcraft.

My definition of winning is the same definition of winning war has had since the beginning of time: achieving one's political objectives.

Ukraine's political objectives are:

* To be in the strongest possible position at the peace table

* To get military and political support from the West against Russia during the conflict and after the conflict is over (EU membership, military protection from NATO if not NATO membership).

They are on track to achieve both.

Russia's political objective was clearly regime change, which miserably failed, and then control of Donbas, which they are struggling to achieve.

So, who's winning?

The only way Russia wins is if nonsense Russian talking points infest Western public opinion so much that we stop arming Ukraine.

[alaricus]

How does losing territory put Ukraine in a strong position in the negotiating table? Longer this war lasts, more territory Ukraine will lose.

The only place Ukraine is winning is in Western media.

[PKop]

It is amazing how propagandized people in the West are during this conflict. Of course this exists on all sides, but it boggles the mind to hear that Ukraine is "winning" this conflict. You know who else isn't winning and is hurt the longer it goes on? Europe, and Germany particularly!

Russia's currency is stronger than before the conflict, their trade surplus is larger, they are making more money from elevated energy prices, they have and will have more territory.

Europe / Germany through stupid sanctions, and talk of more, against Russian energy have inflated energy prices and now have to purchase energy in Rubles after they confiscated Russian Euro and USD foreign exchange reserves. Whereas before they could purchase all in their own currency and were in talks to expand gas supplies through Nord Stream 2, now they've cancelled that project and on the margins have to buy Rubles to buy energy.

Prediction: The pain will increase on Europe and they will realize their bread is buttered in the east, they will come to the conclusion that positive trade relations with Russia, compared to the US are more advantageous and eventually they will approve Nord Stream 2. They will do everything they can to regain the ability to buy all or most energy and commodities from Russia in Euros, meaning ending sanctions and not expanding them.

Good video describing the geopolitical dynamics of European / Russian trade relations after the war ends in Russian victory: [0]

[0] https://youtu.be/pdUYtvk4sqE

[qsort]

Which is yet again a blatant and obvious lie.

Two months ago Russian forces controlled a greater fraction of the territory that they do now.

While wars are fundamentally unpredictable, most military experts agree that further Russian advances are extremely unlikely, and that the best result Russia can hope for is a stalemate along the front as it is right now.

[PKop]

>Ukraine to win as quick as possible

It is not possible for Ukraine to win, they are slowly but methodically getting their country destroyed. What does Germany lighting money on fire funding this destruction do for German interests?

How does this solve their energy needs? It doesn't, it along with sanctions makes energy more expensive. Where they used to be able to buy all energy in Euro's, now some of these purchases now require buying Rubles. Thus Ruble exchange rate is up and Russia's trade surplus is growing.

Germany's alliance with NATO expansion and US meddling in Ukraine along with following US lead to cancel Nord Stream 2 is crushing their economy. Self-sanctioning out of Russian cheap energy supplies will further destroy their industrial output.

>hope it ends the war sooner

hope. That's all they have. It will only impoverish them sooner. Diversification of energy is a worthy goal, but it insane to do this now by first cutting off their primary cheap energy supply. First, continue to buy as much cheap energy as Russia will sell them (instead of selling it to the East). Then, cancel ESG green insanity and pursue oil/gas investments and nuclear expansion wherever possible. But at the end of the day if your neighbor wants to have good trade relations with you, you shouldn't throw that away in service to your "ally" across the ocean.

[phatfish]

Ah yes, the word soup defense of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, do tell us more!

[PKop]

I told you a lot. You tell me something in opposition...

[rat87]

> It is not possible for Ukraine to win

This is backwards, its not possible for Russia to win since Russia is having much more trouble with getting recruits and training them then Ukraine is and can't easily manufacture replacements for lost hardware while equivalents are being provided to Ukraine. The longer the war goes the worse it goes for Russia. Yes Ukraine faces death and destruction but the mood in Ukraine is a determination to keep fighting and Russia is incapable of inflicting enough damage to change that.

Russia was the one meddling in Ukraine, not the US, to Russia's detriment. They are the ones who have set Ukraine against them with their actions. Their actions have led to Finland and Sweden to apply to join NATO.

Based on Russia's actions its clear that Nord Stream 2 should never have been built

>But at the end of the day if your neighbor wants to have good trade relations with you, you shouldn't throw that away in service to your "ally" across the ocean.

Russia is not willing to have good trade relations with Germany. Decades of German politicians have bet on buying Russia's good or at least tolerable behavior through economic interdependence.

Russia made all of them into fools and proved their critics right.

This isn't about America. This is about the EU, about Poland and Czech Republic and Lithuania and Finland. And most of all this is about Germany. Russia is the one who threw it away and proved that Germany's interest was not to buy from Russia

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/germany-depend... (Germany has been forced to admit it was a terrible mistake to become so dependent on Russian oil and gas. So why did it happen?)

> In recent weeks even Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German president, a totemic figure of the Social Democrats and greatest German advocate of the trade “bridge” between east and west, has recanted. He admits he misread Russia’s intentions as he pursued the construction of a new undersea gas pipeline. “My adherence to Nord Stream 2 was clearly a mistake,” he told German media in April. “We held on to bridges that Russia no longer believed in, and that our partners warned us about.” This is an extraordinary admission for a man who acted as chief of staff to Gerhard Schröder, the Social Democratic chancellor from 1998 to 2005 and thereafter a lavishly rewarded, and much reviled, lobbyist for Vladimir Putin. Steinmeier was also foreign minister under Chancellor Merkel, and a great evangelist for Wandel durch Handel, the concept that trade and dialogue can bring about social and political change.