I don't give a fuck about tactics and crap, this isn't Starcraft.
My definition of winning is the same definition of winning war has had since the beginning of time: achieving one's political objectives.
Ukraine's political objectives are:
* To be in the strongest possible position at the peace table
* To get military and political support from the West against Russia during the conflict and after the conflict is over (EU membership, military protection from NATO if not NATO membership).
They are on track to achieve both.
Russia's political objective was clearly regime change, which miserably failed, and then control of Donbas, which they are struggling to achieve.
So, who's winning?
The only way Russia wins is if nonsense Russian talking points infest Western public opinion so much that we stop arming Ukraine.
It is amazing how propagandized people in the West are during this conflict. Of course this exists on all sides, but it boggles the mind to hear that Ukraine is "winning" this conflict. You know who else isn't winning and is hurt the longer it goes on? Europe, and Germany particularly!
Russia's currency is stronger than before the conflict, their trade surplus is larger, they are making more money from elevated energy prices, they have and will have more territory.
Europe / Germany through stupid sanctions, and talk of more, against Russian energy have inflated energy prices and now have to purchase energy in Rubles after they confiscated Russian Euro and USD foreign exchange reserves. Whereas before they could purchase all in their own currency and were in talks to expand gas supplies through Nord Stream 2, now they've cancelled that project and on the margins have to buy Rubles to buy energy.
Prediction: The pain will increase on Europe and they will realize their bread is buttered in the east, they will come to the conclusion that positive trade relations with Russia, compared to the US are more advantageous and eventually they will approve Nord Stream 2. They will do everything they can to regain the ability to buy all or most energy and commodities from Russia in Euros, meaning ending sanctions and not expanding them.
Good video describing the geopolitical dynamics of European / Russian trade relations after the war ends in Russian victory: [0]
Two months ago Russian forces controlled a greater fraction of the territory that they do now.
While wars are fundamentally unpredictable, most military experts agree that further Russian advances are extremely unlikely, and that the best result Russia can hope for is a stalemate along the front as it is right now.