[tremon]

Russia has been threatening Finland/Sweden with consequences for years. As the Finnish PM mentioned in his speech with Boris Johnson a few days ago, Russia has shown with Ukraine that complying with Russia's threats is not a guarantee that the future will be consequence-free.

[gnulinux]

> Russia has shown with Ukraine that complying with Russia's threats is not a guarantee that the future will be consequence-free.

Exactly this. By attacking Ukraine, Russia proved to the world that there is no point complying with Russian geopolitical demands. If Ukraine somehow became a NATO member years ago (not saying that that would have happened, but talking hypothetically) Ukraine would never have been attacked. So, the only rational thing for Finland and Sweden to do is to ignore Russia and join NATO.

[mcv]

If somebody tells you: "I'm going to beat you up if you ask for help", you should probably ask for help. It's not an effective kind of threat, because he's probably going to beat you up at some point anyway.

[nevermindiguess]

Actually no! You should probably notask for help because it has a non zero probability that you will not be beat up, whereas if you do it has an almost certain probability that you will since you have just been warned.

[mcv]

You should get help when there's an opportunity to do so, so he won't be able to beat you up anymore. Surrendering to bullies is never a good idea.

[brabel]

> Russia has shown with Ukraine that complying with Russia's threats is not a guarantee that the future will be consequence-free.

When did Ukraine actually comply with any threat from Russia since at least the Maidan Revolution??

[mint2]

Well in the run up to the Russian invasion Ukraine wasn’t provoking Russia, and Russia officials continually denied it had plans to invade until oh wait they’d had plans for a super long time. I’m not sure about Ukraine complying with Russia orders, but they weren’t really antagonizing them other than by existing and not being completely subservient like Belarus. So yeah after top Russian officials spent so much time lying about the plans and showing they had no sincere intention to negotiate, it’s no wonder Finland and Sweden have decided not to trust Russia.

[brabel]

Your version of what happened seems extremely incomplete to me. Ukraine was basically fighting a war against Russia for 8 years already [1]... and that war started when the Russia-friendly government was removed by revolution (the demoted president fled to Russia after that) after which a very anti-Russian government was immediately instated with the whole objective of joining NATO and the EU, to Russia's dismay...

Not that just because of that Russia had the right to do what it was doing... but let's not forget everything that actually lead to the hostilities like you're simply doing.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas

[AuthorizedCust]

What is your point? Defending your country against an invading force and self determination of a republic are not provocations.

[brabel]

This is your opinion... if you believe everyone should agree with you on that, then yes, seeking membership on a military alliance whose aim is to keep your country at bay is not a provocation. But can you maybe consider that Putin and most Russians do not share your opinion? Would an American consider that Canada joining a Chinese-led military alliance to defend its members against USA's increased aggression (in Canadian's and Chinese opinions) count as a provocation to America? Well, to Americans it most certainly would... even if the Chinese disagreed completely with them... this is my point. It's easy to believe our opinion is the only one that counts and fuck anyone who doesn't share it.

[mint2]

In the two years prior to the war, what addition steps had Ukraine taken to become a nato member?

Second, why all the Russian lies about nazis? If nato was a legitimate concern why do they need those lies?

If nato was actually a concern, why would they take the step most likely to get Finland and Sweden on board with nato? It seems like many other statements by Russia, nato concerns are lies as well.

[amrangaye]

I think the fact that you keep framing this as a matter of “opinion” is revealing in itself. You speak of “provocation” as if it’s equal and commensurate to bombing and invading a country. I really cannot understand people who keep pushing this point. Ukraine decided they might like to join NATO - so therefore Russia has a right to invade and level the country. Please make this make sense to me. The bombs dropping on Ukrainian citizens every night while Russian citizens sleep in peace should tell you enough - this is not a matter of “opinion” - how easy to say that from a privileged position in which you and your home are under no threat.

And your analogy with Canada and China doesn’t hold up either. In that case too the US would have no right to invade a sovereign country for making decisions about its own future. You speak as if this imagined scenario somehow justifies Putin’s actions when it fact it highlights how wrong they are even more.

[agent008t]

Crimea was effectively allowed to be annexed by Russia.

[jgrahamc]

As the Finnish PM mentioned in his speech

I am pretty sure Sanna Marin is a woman.

[ginko]

I think GP was talking about the Finnish president's speech, actually.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLNBxpo8zY

[tremon]

Oh, then the speech I saw wasn't by the PM.

[CRConrad]

Prez, probably. Sale is a guy.