[blisterpeanuts]

I wonder whether the Shanghai situation will be what finally catalyzes real political reform. The people have put up with a lot from this regime over the years. Shanghai has historically been where anti-government movements get going. It will be interesting to see what transpires over the next few months.

[BeefWellington]

These same draconian measures were how China supposedly weathered the initial spread of COVID well if those reports are to be believed, and even if you don't it's the party line. Given that, it would seem more likely that they'll double down since "this worked before."

Along these same lines, crushing dissenters is also something the government has much experience with, and has also "worked before" in the worst ways. I don't hold out much hope in terms of anti-government movements taking root and actually effecting change.

[bpodgursky]

Yeah... but those lockdowns weren't in "first-tier" cities, it was lockdowns of dirty provincials.

If the elites in Beijing are locked in their apartments for months on end, and start to go hungry... idk. I'm not saying there's going to be some fantastical democratic reform, but a coup that replaces Xi seems plausible.

[gruez]

>If the elites in Beijing are locked in their apartments for months on end, and start to go hungry... idk

That's why Beijing is getting better treatment.

>A defence of Beijing’s strict border controls might stress the importance of shielding the central government from outbreaks. But that does not explain why pandemic rules inside the capital have been strikingly lenient, compared with those imposed on humbler places like Langfang. For instance, more than half a dozen covid cases were found in April in Jiuxianqiao, a district of Beijing near modern-art galleries and posh apartment blocks. A compact “high-risk zone” was drawn around that outbreak as if with a scalpel. Nearby schools, shops and restaurants stayed open.

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/04/21/chinas-harsh-and-...

[etaioinshrdlu]

Is xi Jinping’s grip on power really that strong? Is there no chance the CCP can vote to remove him and change course? I doubt all of them feel great about returning to a new Mao-like era when the more economically free system was clearly pleasant enough.

[user_named]

The congress in October is precisely why the covid 0 policy is maintained, so he won't be blamed for a large outbreak.

[mdp2021]

You have just answered, with the most cynical note, possibly eye-opening, to a question that many have raised, including people of refined intellect. Maybe they were missing the notion of the appointment on the calendar, maybe they did not associate the two (or did not instinctively believe they could be associated - but when you add the "mitigating factors", the decision gains an aspect of "rational", or of /rationalized/).

[kalleboo]

I dunno, one of the stronger sentiments seems to be "the Shanghai government is fucking this up, we need the central government to take over and fix this".

[powerapple]

It is my opinion as well. If you look at other cities, they all followed the zero-covid policy while Shanghai's official was declaring the city will not lock down for a few days or a week to get over the virus, instead, she insists there has only been one severe case, ignoring the numbers from all other countries (0.1% death rate). That's why I believe if they have acted properly at the beginning, the lockdown can start a week earlier and finish 4 weeks earlier.

[ninjin]

I have heard this line a fair few times as well (not taking a stance in terms of whether it is factually true or not) and it is in my experience fairly common among supporters of authoritarian systems. Given that the leadership is largely (if not entirely) infallible, clearly it was the execution of their orders that was flawed and the fix should be to give them further power and prune some underlings. Rinse, repeat, and the system survives.

Look at a TV “audience” with Putin and you will see the very same pattern.

[ImaCake]

Same thing in Nazi Germany. The Fuhrer was considered to be above party politics and the anti-semitic actions of the nazi state. Of course he wasn’t, but its a tried and true tactic I guess.

[refurb]

Precisely. It's all "spin", every government does it, China is an expert at it.

Things go well: CCP success story and demonstration of superiority of China (note, not the Party, because "the people and the party are ONE")

Things go poorly: Local government incompetence, foreign interference, reactionary saboteurs "picking fights and quarrels"

[user_named]

Shanghai gov did fuck up. Now Beijing gov is fucking up.

[kalleboo]

Yeah the outcome of Beijing will be more important than Shanghai

[whoevercares]

I hope it doesn’t, political reform in China is dangerous and may cause chaos - call me selfish but let my younger sister out first

[liuliu]

Repost from somewhere else:

---

What bothers me in the past few days is to make sense of what’s happening in Shanghai. There are quite a bit of rumors, but nothing makes sense. However, now I think that I have arrived at a reasonable explanation of what happened.

First, let’s establish some facts:

1. Once you have more than 10k cases in a city with Omicron (R0 ~ 9), true zero-covid policy (as opposed to zero-covid in-face policy, a.k.a. Hong Kong) will cause big human suffering no matter what. There are limitations on what an organization can do.

2. Xi is not a smart person, but he has a big picture in mind and is ruthless. He doesn’t mind being hated in one place, as long as he maintains the power.

3. There are no success stories under CCP to fight one faction against another with street movements. CCP is allergic to any instability, especially after the Cultural Revolution. That is why 1989 can only be ended in that particular way. If you only looked at the symptomatic cases in Shanghai, it can be argued that the dynamic zeroing policy is working, and there is no exponential growth.

With these facts in mind, it doesn’t make sense if Shanghai Clique wants to use the Shanghai situation as ammunition against Xi. The dissatisfaction of Shanghai people will only translate into street movement, a.k.a: instability. If it is a way to prove zero-covid policy doesn’t work, anywhere else is much better to start, and you want it to be nation-wide. For example, Beijing is a much better place to start and Xi would lose face big time.

What’s more plausible, is the following:

Shanghai encountered an outbreak of Omicron, and they chose to weather through this with a combination of under-testing and natural immunity (Shanghai has the highest vaccination rate in China and it shows from the asymptomatic cases). Xi & his people saw an opening to expel Shanghai Clique once for all, and start to implement the most strict zero-covid policy in Shanghai.

So far, the reaction has been what they were expecting. People are revolting, which in turn fueled hatred against Shanghainese in other parts of China. Further instability in Shanghai ensured, and that can only help him to consolidate power more just before the Conference. Remember, Xi’s base is never the middle-class from big cities.

What Shanghai Clique can do:

Contrary to other rumors, there are limited options Shanghai Clique has. Street movements (like Colour Revolution) would guarantee a failure, and further erosion of their power. However, they can leverage Jiang’s influence by having him visit Fangcang. He enjoyed great respect from the old generation of Shanghai. However, this is a tricky balance because aligning themselves as sympathizers to street movements is a sure way to lose power within CCP (like Zhao in 1989).

[AustrianChina]

The numbers provided for "asymptomatic" cases are meaningless, since cases are only considered "symptomatic" if they are exhibiting the severe symptoms associated with the Alpha and Delta versions. By the time most people get back a definitive positive PCR test report, most have already gotten over the sore throat and fever phase and are left with mere coughing. Some only get the coughing and nothing else. Regardless, these are objectively speaking also symptoms, but they don't get counted that way.

Today's article mentions this: https://austrianchina.substack.com/p/beijing-lockdown-rumor

[powerapple]

"Shanghai encountered an outbreak of Omicron, and they chose to weather through this with a combination of under-testing and natural immunity (Shanghai has the highest vaccination rate in China and it shows from the asymptomatic cases)."

The reasons I am strongly against the action (if it is the action taken by Shanghai government) are: 1) Shanghai is not an isolated state, it is a hub, any action taken by the government should also consider other cities because it will definitely spread into other cities. Shanghai has the highest vaccination rate, highest medical facility per capital, but other cities does not have such luxury. 2) You can have strict policy and then relax it when needed, it does not go the other way around, the first thing you want to do the test in a controlled environment, not having the virus spreading out of control; It is far easier to take full control at the beginning, and then try to relax in small areas; 3) the fact that the health department referring to 1 severe cases at the beginning scared me, ignoring the fact that all other countries in this world has shown .1% death rate, how can they be so naive. (I have friends also ignores numbers from other countries, arguing life is fine, but life is not fine for people lost their families); 4) the fact that Shanghai keeps emphasis that their unique measurements for covid different than others show their ignorance at the very beginning, which unfortunately led to current situation.

I can see million death if the Shanghai cannot contain it properly in the coming month.