[BeefWellington]

These same draconian measures were how China supposedly weathered the initial spread of COVID well if those reports are to be believed, and even if you don't it's the party line. Given that, it would seem more likely that they'll double down since "this worked before."

Along these same lines, crushing dissenters is also something the government has much experience with, and has also "worked before" in the worst ways. I don't hold out much hope in terms of anti-government movements taking root and actually effecting change.

[bpodgursky]

Yeah... but those lockdowns weren't in "first-tier" cities, it was lockdowns of dirty provincials.

If the elites in Beijing are locked in their apartments for months on end, and start to go hungry... idk. I'm not saying there's going to be some fantastical democratic reform, but a coup that replaces Xi seems plausible.

[gruez]

>If the elites in Beijing are locked in their apartments for months on end, and start to go hungry... idk

That's why Beijing is getting better treatment.

>A defence of Beijing’s strict border controls might stress the importance of shielding the central government from outbreaks. But that does not explain why pandemic rules inside the capital have been strikingly lenient, compared with those imposed on humbler places like Langfang. For instance, more than half a dozen covid cases were found in April in Jiuxianqiao, a district of Beijing near modern-art galleries and posh apartment blocks. A compact “high-risk zone” was drawn around that outbreak as if with a scalpel. Nearby schools, shops and restaurants stayed open.

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/04/21/chinas-harsh-and-...