[oneoff786]

I don’t see any evidence it’s shaping up to be a long war. Russia has effectively abandoned their western front. They’re focusing on the east and somewhat the south.

The Russian army’s performance has been pathetic and wouldn’t last long at all vs. nato. Nukes are a thing, but not a long war thing.

[supramouse]

they likely achieve their goals though, taking the east and crippling the country to a point it's not extremely relevant

there's the whole 'western unity' thing but it won't last very long and doesn't severely change the equation

[magicalist]

> they likely achieve their goals though

Ah yes, massive equipment and personnel losses, reminding the world that Putin is a flagrant liar, spurring movement off national gas, and making clear exactly how formidable the Russian military isn't. All while not actually taking strategic points in the east one month in.

Really nailed it.

[Mikeb85]

Unfortunately Russia can just launch rockets and shells from within their own borders and completely level Ukrainian cities... Even if they lose most of their army they still can 'win' by using tactics no other nation would deem acceptable. And that's likely what they'll do as long as they feel the west won't directly intervene.

[pjc50]

The Ukranians can fire back? Such as at Belgorod? Besides, even rocket artillery range is only about 30km. Kyiv is now out of range of everything except airstrikes, and Russian air power is of limited effectiveness as they never achieved air superiority.

It is quite possible the Ukranians will retake everything taken in the recent offensive. The question is then whether they will also attempt to retake Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.

It probably will be a long war if they do.

[tomrod]

Why stop at reclaiming former Ukrainian areas defined post USSR collapse?

It would be beneficial to the world to see a Novo Ukraine, a wealthy country committed to peace and modeled with a federalist system, taught by the mobocratic failures of the last 30 years, stretching from eastern Europe to Siberia.

[oneoff786]

Belgorod was a helicopter strike. Very much at the location.

Otherwise yeah. Kyiv is fine short of a nuclear strike.

[supercanuck]

This isn't true. There is evidence they are regrouping and the approval rating of Putin in Russia is increasing.

[oneoff786]

There is no evidence they are regrouping. There is strong evidence of vehicles being trained back out of Ukraine via Belorussian rail. To attack kyiv again would be starting from scratch.

Putin’s approval rating is irrelevant.

Russia has managed to lose the battle of kyiv, and among other blundering failures, has repeatedly failed to establish air superiority. The extent to which they would be utterly slaughtered given actual western air support is hard to exaggerate.

At least to the extent of arbitrary Europeans needing to worry about a draft.

[JaimeThompson]

>the approval rating of Putin in Russia is increasing

If you lived in Russia would you give an honest answer to those running the polls not knowing if they would report you to the government?

[earleybird]

Lol, in Canada it will soon be illegal to give an honest opinion of our own government.