[supramouse]

they likely achieve their goals though, taking the east and crippling the country to a point it's not extremely relevant

there's the whole 'western unity' thing but it won't last very long and doesn't severely change the equation

[magicalist]

> they likely achieve their goals though

Ah yes, massive equipment and personnel losses, reminding the world that Putin is a flagrant liar, spurring movement off national gas, and making clear exactly how formidable the Russian military isn't. All while not actually taking strategic points in the east one month in.

Really nailed it.

[Mikeb85]

Unfortunately Russia can just launch rockets and shells from within their own borders and completely level Ukrainian cities... Even if they lose most of their army they still can 'win' by using tactics no other nation would deem acceptable. And that's likely what they'll do as long as they feel the west won't directly intervene.

[pjc50]

The Ukranians can fire back? Such as at Belgorod? Besides, even rocket artillery range is only about 30km. Kyiv is now out of range of everything except airstrikes, and Russian air power is of limited effectiveness as they never achieved air superiority.

It is quite possible the Ukranians will retake everything taken in the recent offensive. The question is then whether they will also attempt to retake Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.

It probably will be a long war if they do.

[tomrod]

Why stop at reclaiming former Ukrainian areas defined post USSR collapse?

It would be beneficial to the world to see a Novo Ukraine, a wealthy country committed to peace and modeled with a federalist system, taught by the mobocratic failures of the last 30 years, stretching from eastern Europe to Siberia.

[oneoff786]

Belgorod was a helicopter strike. Very much at the location.

Otherwise yeah. Kyiv is fine short of a nuclear strike.