[nickff]

You have to ask yourself what he would achieve by using nuclear weapons, and what the costs would be. Using nuclear weapons seems unlikely to benefit the Putin regime in any way, and risks destablizing his position, both from inside and outside Russia.

Putin is not crazy, he is acting rationally from his perspective (though it may be hard to understand). My suspicion is that the reports of him having cancer are correct, and the Ukraine invasion was a way to bolster and secure his position in the face of doubt caused by the cancer.

[azornathogron]

> Putin is not crazy, [...] the Ukraine invasion was a way to bolster and secure his position in the face of doubt caused by the cancer.

Although I (think I) know what you mean, the idea of starting a war, killing thousands of people, destroying cities and destroying the Russian economy all to avoid looking weak due to cancer... well, it certainty sounds pretty fucking crazy to me.

[ben_w]

I get the sentiment.

I think “rational” and “crazy” are not incompatible; to me, a lack of empathy is a type of crazy, and yet I also think people who lack empathy can make rational or irrational decisions about how to reach their goals.

I’m not sure I’d count Putin as rational even given a lack of empathy, given what seems to happen to successful Russian generals even before this war.

[zamalek]

Psychopaths and sociopaths can be surmised as: acquisition of power and self-preservation. A nuclear war is also a nuclear war for Putin; he would perish along with the rest of us, or soon after us (especially with no infrastructure to treat his cancer).

Suicide is a terminal disease. Psychopathy is a chronic condition. You could suffer from both, but we've never seen suicidal tendencies from Putin.

[nickff]

Illness and/or the prospect of death usually destabilizes dictatorships, as the regime's supporters try to secure their positions by selecting a successor who will preserve the status quo (or a favorable change).

I think Putin believed that this would be a quick victory, capturing the Eastern oblasts, and either negotiating a settlement with the Ukrainians, or conquering the country and installing a puppet regime. This is what most analysts seem to have expected, and the fierce Ukrainian resistance is what's forced the West to implement strong sanctions.

[labster]

I agree with everything in your post but the word “forced”, which is not quite right. It’s hard to sanction a fait accompli, sure. But there was a certain eagerness in the West for at least some sanctions. A lot happened in just one week.