[nickff]

Illness and/or the prospect of death usually destabilizes dictatorships, as the regime's supporters try to secure their positions by selecting a successor who will preserve the status quo (or a favorable change).

I think Putin believed that this would be a quick victory, capturing the Eastern oblasts, and either negotiating a settlement with the Ukrainians, or conquering the country and installing a puppet regime. This is what most analysts seem to have expected, and the fierce Ukrainian resistance is what's forced the West to implement strong sanctions.

[labster]

I agree with everything in your post but the word “forced”, which is not quite right. It’s hard to sanction a fait accompli, sure. But there was a certain eagerness in the West for at least some sanctions. A lot happened in just one week.