[scalablenotions]

I've thought for a long time that battery swapping is the only way to go for all electric vehicles. A subscription or pay-as-you-go service for battery changing is practical and would make battery replacements costing tens of thousands of dollars a non-thing. I know some batteries are heavy, but if stations can provide petroleum pumps, then they can provide mechanized battery exchange infrastructure, right? Bring on the ISO standards for vehicle batteries!

Does anyone have any reason why this wouldn't work? Perhaps parts being stolen from the rental batteries before they're returned or some such?

[stetrain]

You add more weight by making the pack easily removable, and you need battery standardization.

If every brand or every model has a different pack size, then swap stations aren’t very scalable.

If you standardize pack sizes, then some cars will have less range than they could, given that they could fit a larger pack.

It makes a lot of sense for the relatively small, light, and inexpensive scooters. The packs can be hand carried, and different vehicles can just have slots one, two, or three packs as needed.

You aren’t trying to squeeze 300-400 miles out of a scooter by packing every inch of the frame with batteries. “Good enough” is perfectly fine for urban scooters.

And I think the reality is that it just won’t be economically viable for large cars. We are quickly reaching the point where the battery packs will last the lifetime of the car, and roadtrip charging stops are falling under 20 minutes.

[pessimizer]

> We are quickly reaching the point where the battery packs will last the lifetime of the car,

Are we helping that along by lowering the lifespan of cars?

[EvanAnderson]

Having worked around propane cylinders a standardized battery pack sure seems like a no-brainer to me. It adds value to the EV because the useful lifetime is no coupled less closely to the lifetime of the battery pack.

Advances in battery chemistry and charging could be rolled-out across "legacy" fleets of EVs by upgrading the charging stations and batteries in circulation. The EVs themselves remain unchanged.

I feel like planned obsolescence is a "feature" of current EV's, in part by integrating the battery pack so deeply into the design. There would weight/efficiency trade-offs in standardizing on a battery pack but it's not like there isn't value returned by way of faster "recharges", increased service lifetime of the EV, and the potential to take advantage of new battery/charging technology.

It also seems like rapid battery change stations would be a great "pivot" for existing gas stations and truck stops, and something they could move into slowly (convert a portion of their dispensers over to battery change rigs as the Customer base shifts from ICE to EV).

[stetrain]

I think a lot of people underestimate the speed at which DC fast chargers are already being deployed. They are a simple known quantity with few moving parts that are fairly easy to install with existing power infrastructure as long as you can find a few extra parking spaces in a lot somewhere.

Tesla alone is opening stations with 8-20 charging stalls on a daily basis, and other companies are doing similar work:

Tesla: https://supercharge.info/changes

Others: https://fastcharger.info/

We are already at the point where most new EV car batteries are going to last the life of the vehicle, and can get a useful charge on a road trip in under 20 minutes. Battery swaps are an interesting idea but would add extra space and weight and require a level of standardization that just isn't going to happen across manufacturers unless forced by regulation.

[EvanAnderson]

What should the expectation of useful life of an EV be? My family's daily drivers are 2007 Honda models, both w/ >200K miles and can still achieve 100% of their factory-new range, don't burn oil, and pass emissions and safety checks. I don't think a 15 year operational lifetime for a modern vehicle is at all unreasonable.

[stetrain]

Most EVs have battery warranties for 100,000 miles +, and that's to a certain degradation mark, not that the battery is expected to be non-functional past that point.

Even if an EV needs one battery replacement in its lifetime, that's an entirely different impact to vehicle design and infrastructure than having battery swap stations (brand/model specific???) on every street corner.

Newer chemistries are aiming for longer lifespan, with Tesla's stated goal being a million miles.

Basically most of the problems preventing EV adoption 10-20 years ago have been solved by scale and technology improvements, so I wouldn't expect those to stop today. I think if we put an interstate-highway-system level investment into battery swap stations and standardization we might see it all be obsoleted in a decade as cars can fit 500+ miles of range, recharge to 80% in 15 minutes, and have batteries that last 500,000 - 1,000,000 miles.

Also as the EV industry matures, I'm sure we will see a market for recycled and refurbished batteries outside of the OEMs. This is already happening at a raw material level, and OEMs are doing this at a battery pack level.

If your 2007 Honda has an engine or transmission failure at 200,000 miles, you probably are going to pay someone to rebuild it or buy an already rebuilt component, rather than paying Honda the value of your entire vehicle for a brand new factory engine.

Edit: And have you actually measured that your 2007 Hondas still get 100% of the rated EPA range? I would find that pretty surprising.

[EvanAnderson]

That all sounds good. It just feels like it's never actually coming.

Tesla is probably coloring my perception, what with reading horror stories about parts being unavailable after minor accidents. It seems like Tesla, especially, is doing everything they can to avoid a used market. Just their "DRM" alone makes the car feel like a long-term rental versus an ownership model.

I feel good about my ICE cars' lifetime because I can get rebuilt parts and have a "good as new" vehicle (if the cost makes sense). The EV industry doesn't feel like it's going that way any time soon. Maybe some regulation would help.

re: Range/mileage of my Honda cars - I track fuel fills and mileage religiously (being a child of parents burned by the 70's gas crunch and who are borderline "hyper-milers" with their own vehicles). Both my vehicles still operate at or above their EPA rated mileages (17-20 on the Pilot and 27-31 on the 2007 Civic Si, mixed city/highway driving but heavily dependent on the type of driving). I've had excellent luck with Honda vehicles and I also try to take excellent care of them. (I'd still be driving my wife's 1995 Civic, at 350K miles on the original engine and transmission, if not for the body rusting away from 20+ years of Ohio winters. It wasn't washed regularly during / after winter in its early life and never had anti-rust treatments. Poor thing.)

[stetrain]

The market will come. The first non-Tesla dedicated EV factories are only coming online in the US this year. There are 13+ new battery factories under construction in the US for non-Tesla suppliers targeting operation by 2025.

It's not tomorrow, but the car market and chargers are going to look a lot different in 10 years. And I don't think installing a bunch of mechanically complex battery swap stations is going to work for American car preferences unless we get some really onerous regulation to standardize across brands and car models.