[stetrain]

I think a lot of people underestimate the speed at which DC fast chargers are already being deployed. They are a simple known quantity with few moving parts that are fairly easy to install with existing power infrastructure as long as you can find a few extra parking spaces in a lot somewhere.

Tesla alone is opening stations with 8-20 charging stalls on a daily basis, and other companies are doing similar work:

Tesla: https://supercharge.info/changes

Others: https://fastcharger.info/

We are already at the point where most new EV car batteries are going to last the life of the vehicle, and can get a useful charge on a road trip in under 20 minutes. Battery swaps are an interesting idea but would add extra space and weight and require a level of standardization that just isn't going to happen across manufacturers unless forced by regulation.

[EvanAnderson]

What should the expectation of useful life of an EV be? My family's daily drivers are 2007 Honda models, both w/ >200K miles and can still achieve 100% of their factory-new range, don't burn oil, and pass emissions and safety checks. I don't think a 15 year operational lifetime for a modern vehicle is at all unreasonable.

[stetrain]

Most EVs have battery warranties for 100,000 miles +, and that's to a certain degradation mark, not that the battery is expected to be non-functional past that point.

Even if an EV needs one battery replacement in its lifetime, that's an entirely different impact to vehicle design and infrastructure than having battery swap stations (brand/model specific???) on every street corner.

Newer chemistries are aiming for longer lifespan, with Tesla's stated goal being a million miles.

Basically most of the problems preventing EV adoption 10-20 years ago have been solved by scale and technology improvements, so I wouldn't expect those to stop today. I think if we put an interstate-highway-system level investment into battery swap stations and standardization we might see it all be obsoleted in a decade as cars can fit 500+ miles of range, recharge to 80% in 15 minutes, and have batteries that last 500,000 - 1,000,000 miles.

Also as the EV industry matures, I'm sure we will see a market for recycled and refurbished batteries outside of the OEMs. This is already happening at a raw material level, and OEMs are doing this at a battery pack level.

If your 2007 Honda has an engine or transmission failure at 200,000 miles, you probably are going to pay someone to rebuild it or buy an already rebuilt component, rather than paying Honda the value of your entire vehicle for a brand new factory engine.

Edit: And have you actually measured that your 2007 Hondas still get 100% of the rated EPA range? I would find that pretty surprising.

[EvanAnderson]

That all sounds good. It just feels like it's never actually coming.

Tesla is probably coloring my perception, what with reading horror stories about parts being unavailable after minor accidents. It seems like Tesla, especially, is doing everything they can to avoid a used market. Just their "DRM" alone makes the car feel like a long-term rental versus an ownership model.

I feel good about my ICE cars' lifetime because I can get rebuilt parts and have a "good as new" vehicle (if the cost makes sense). The EV industry doesn't feel like it's going that way any time soon. Maybe some regulation would help.

re: Range/mileage of my Honda cars - I track fuel fills and mileage religiously (being a child of parents burned by the 70's gas crunch and who are borderline "hyper-milers" with their own vehicles). Both my vehicles still operate at or above their EPA rated mileages (17-20 on the Pilot and 27-31 on the 2007 Civic Si, mixed city/highway driving but heavily dependent on the type of driving). I've had excellent luck with Honda vehicles and I also try to take excellent care of them. (I'd still be driving my wife's 1995 Civic, at 350K miles on the original engine and transmission, if not for the body rusting away from 20+ years of Ohio winters. It wasn't washed regularly during / after winter in its early life and never had anti-rust treatments. Poor thing.)

[stetrain]

The market will come. The first non-Tesla dedicated EV factories are only coming online in the US this year. There are 13+ new battery factories under construction in the US for non-Tesla suppliers targeting operation by 2025.

It's not tomorrow, but the car market and chargers are going to look a lot different in 10 years. And I don't think installing a bunch of mechanically complex battery swap stations is going to work for American car preferences unless we get some really onerous regulation to standardize across brands and car models.