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by alephnan 1566 days ago
> I've heard it said that China needs to grow rich before it grows old, and that saying could apply to many Asian countries right now.

Asian countries are quite diverse in the economics demographics.

Japan's already rich, but aging. Japan is stuck in the 1980s in many regards including soft power.

China's not aging yet, but it's on Japan's trajectory. Bad with soft power.

South Korea is similar to China, but it's already rich. Japanese may disagree but South Korea is arguably the strongest in soft power in Asia.

Vietnam has a young population, but it is still developing and might be subject to the middle income trap if automation for otherwise low cost labor ramps up.

Taiwan has its silicon shield, but software engineers are paid pretty bad. There just aren't many high paying salaries there. It also has a big welfare system despite not having many job/career opportunities.

Hong Kong there is an exodus of young people and white collar people.

Japan probably has the most affordable housing in the list, relative to the average income. I'm currently living here. I've been looking at real estate in Taiwan, but it just makes zero sense. It makes Manhattan condos seem reasonable given how old and units in Taiwan are.

2 comments

>China's not aging yet

Yes they definitely are, and faster than almost any other country. China's median age is already well into middle age, and their birth rate has peaked and is falling quickly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China

> Yes they definitely are, and faster than almost any other country.

I know what you mean, but I find the notion that the Chinese are ageing faster than everyone else amusing.

The interesting thing for me with Japan and babies is in the 80s when houses were the most expensive in the world, the birth rate was much higher than now when houses are the cheapest in the developed world.
Isn’t the correlation obvious? Growing population means higher demand for housing, shrinking population means less demand and prices go down as units aren’t needed. It goes to show that the cultural forces are more important than the cost when choosing whether to have kids.
There are also confounding factors of increasing number of financially independent women and more convenient, more foolproof birth control methods.