[Borrible]

Providing secure gas via Nordstream One, Jamal Europe/Jamal, Sojus/Transgas, albeit the mess: Let's talk, everything could be fine between us.

Showing the Nuke card: 'Fuck off, this is not your business.'

Carrot.

Stick.

You want something, I want something.

Oh, and of course sow a fair amount of discord between Western allies. The Russians are waiting for the first Germans to say: "Look, they keep their word. Even if they are currently raping Ukraine, okay. But, then again, you know she dressed provocatively."

Wait until Germany has taken a few hundred thousand Ukrainian refugees and faces an inflation around five to seven percent.

Not to forget, this crisis will get cold, governments in the West will change and you have to get along again. Who knows who handles the White House in a few years.

Wasn't so bad, was it, luv?

Did you know, showing the Nuke stick early (Escalate to De-Escalate) is said to be an invention of a certain meteoric risen Russian politician in his time as Secretary of the Russian National Security Council around 2000?

A brilliant method to madness.

[Ajef]

I'm not sure I understand the meaning of your response particularly but I'll try to give my perspective.

Unless the nuclear war is propagated a lot more in the media, I don't believe most Germans will take it seriously... for now. We currently have no nuclear weapons so from my perspective it's out of our hands anyway. Just because Putin mentioned it doesn't mean Germans see it as realistic. I can obviously only speak for myself but noone in my surrounding has mentioned it as anything more than political leverage.

Regarding sewing discord between western allies: The nordstream pipeline has been a point of contention between western allies and quite controversal in inner german politics. I don't see that changing, if/when the pipeline is used there will be outcries from allies and within Germany. Economically the choice might be made anyway because the energy prices in Germany are just extremely high and not all gas usage can be replaced by other sources.

Regarding refugees, it's hard for me to estimate the impact. This is honestly something i feel i should research a bit. My opinion is that short term such changes in population can have unforseen effects. Long term I believe it helps Germany with it's declining population. All the arguments regarding culture etc. don't mean much to me personally as all that changes over time anyway and clinging to some notion of culture tied to a geographic location is presumptuous. If you want a certain culture in your life.. then live that way.

[Borrible]

Yes, but you probably aren't Putin, you probably aren't Russian and you are probably powerless in a geostrategical or any other meaningfull sense. Like most people on this planet. Which makes a big difference for thinking.

And as I have already indicated, a method to madness implies above all .... Madness. And a system that selects a certain amount of madness as a means to national power. His frame of reference is obviously quite different from yours. And so, probably, is that of his close environment in Russia's power apparatus. That means, they could have stopped this beforehand if they wouldn't have the same method of thinking.

Beside, that 'Escalate to De-Escalate' thing which Putin may have introduced into the Russian discussion of its nuclear doctrine, involves the use, not just the threat,of a tactical nuclear weapon to stop an escalation of conventional war or if things go too badly. Just small enough that the Russian apparatus does not believe in nuclear retaliation by other nations. A surprisingly last-minute test of a small tactical nuclear bomb, that sort of thing. Or one in the atmosphere above the baltic sea, who knows.

This concept does not even require an immediate threat to Russian territory from enemy forces, i.e., their invasion. Which is their official doctrin for the use of nuclear weapons.

In short, it doesn't matter what you think, nor what I think. It matters what Putin and his cronies think. And obviously, nobody really knows what they think or are capable of. And what they even care to consider as a reality.

[anonAndOn]

> sow a fair amount of discord between Western allies

From my outsiders perspective, I have never seen Europe so unified. Putin has inspired an astonishing amount of camaraderie amongst his western neighbors.

[BongoMcCat]

It's the same from an inside perspective.

[belval]

That's what I don't get about the whole situation. Putin always seemed like an intelligent man, that understood Russia's strengths and weaknesses. I would've thought he would try to divide the EU significantly before invading Ukraine.

Whether or not he takes Ukraine is pretty much irrelevant now. They will have the equivalent of a warmonger penalty for at least a decade. I wonder if there is any truth to the rumor that he is sick, that's the only way I see that the whole puzzle fits.

[anonAndOn]

When Finland starts saying "we really should consider this NATO thing", anti-war Germany says "we need lots more tanks!" and even the Swiss say "we are neutral to everyone but you" (all in one week!!!) the people around him MUST realize just how badly Putin has fucked up.

[kadoban]

My guess is that Putin just way overplayed his hand. A decade or two of his tricks to undermine NATO and the West got him overconfident and he thought he the fundamentals of NATO were weaker than they are.

Dictators have a tendency to surround themselves with yes-men over time as well, that's probably playing into this some.

Now I'm sure he realizes he miscalculated, but it's unclear how to stand down.