[belval]

That's what I don't get about the whole situation. Putin always seemed like an intelligent man, that understood Russia's strengths and weaknesses. I would've thought he would try to divide the EU significantly before invading Ukraine.

Whether or not he takes Ukraine is pretty much irrelevant now. They will have the equivalent of a warmonger penalty for at least a decade. I wonder if there is any truth to the rumor that he is sick, that's the only way I see that the whole puzzle fits.

[anonAndOn]

When Finland starts saying "we really should consider this NATO thing", anti-war Germany says "we need lots more tanks!" and even the Swiss say "we are neutral to everyone but you" (all in one week!!!) the people around him MUST realize just how badly Putin has fucked up.

[kadoban]

My guess is that Putin just way overplayed his hand. A decade or two of his tricks to undermine NATO and the West got him overconfident and he thought he the fundamentals of NATO were weaker than they are.

Dictators have a tendency to surround themselves with yes-men over time as well, that's probably playing into this some.

Now I'm sure he realizes he miscalculated, but it's unclear how to stand down.