[LaMarseillaise]

I had been saying for years that Russian conventional military power was vastly overestimated, yet even I have been surprised at their dismal performance so far. A week ago, I assumed decisive Russian victory to be a foregone conclusion. Now a Ukrainian victory actually seems possible and perhaps even plausible. You are right to point out that it is early, though.

[MrMan]

not a military victory, almost surely, but a long-term insurrection is I guess a kind of political victory when the invaders finally leave.

[philistine]

It's already assured that when Russia controls the whole of Ukraine, it does so having suffered a severe blow to its reputation and its military forces. Aside from the nuclear weapons, I don't think anyone is scared of the might of the Russian army anymore.

They don't want it to attack them, but everyone is reassessing their fear of the Russian bear.