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by Jyaif 1575 days ago
I believe so. Rosneft being state-own, this looks like a 25 billion gift to Russia. There must be something that I don't understand.
5 comments

It would be such a gift at current share price. But Rosneft will probably become much cheaper.

1. Their current production capacity in Russia will decline, since they won’t be able to receive new equipment and spare parts.

2. Their exports capacity may be reduced if more sanctions will come.

3. Their cashflow will be heavily impacted by sanctions. They may not be able to receive money or spend them on domestic market (eg pay salaries).

4. Their foreign investments may be frozen or they may be forced to sell.

This might be what the current dictator in that country wants - reduce the dependency on the imported components. And increase the percentage of state ownership of the natural resources.
This is probably the last time Putin uses Russia's resources to blackmail the EU. That's why he attacked Ukraine: he knew the window of opportunity to transform it into a Russian vasal state like Belarus is closing fast, so he picked the last refuge of the incompetent: violence. The EU won't build any ICE vehicles running on oil derivates after 2030, China is already ahead of them in this sectorand Germany just changed course with its plans to use Russian gas as for decarbonization after the invasion of Ukraine. China is also going to pay a lot less than the EU for Russian gas and there only so much pipeline capacity to deliver it. Russia basically just became dependent on China economically, just like Kazahstan and Mongolia. They have just invested $11.6B in a pipeline that will basically sit unused and will waste the rest of their dwindling treasury reserves on the war effort.
It is a good time in the US to stop subsidizing car economy. And let the price of gas increase. At least to the same level as in Europe.

It is heart-breaking to hear that we exclude energy from the embargo fighting to keep the gas prices low at all costs. We should pay $10 per gallon at the pump. And work at curbing our gas consumption.

I wish this was true, but if they wait a few more years and do it again but win in 1 or 2 days they could still get away with it. I don't see this as their last dangerous takeover, as long as Putin is around.
In accounting terms, you might consider the stake to have been bought for 25 billion at the time, but now it's being considered worthless (or maybe even a liability) by BP, so something of no (dollar) value is being given to Russia. The loss in value might be considered to have occurred as a result of recent events.

Edit: note that I have no idea of the value myself. I'm just saying that if you were to accept BP's view, then they're not necessarily giving Russia a gift of any kind.

It was worth $25 billion before the invasion happened. Then the invasion happened. Then their share was worth the same amount in Rubles, but the value of the Ruble cratered. So their share was worth $10 billion. Then the west began announcing sanctions. Then Putin announced he was going to nationalize (personalize?) foreign investments in Russian firms -- including BP's investment. So their $25 / $10 billion stake was worth zero. Literally zero. Not a fraction of $25 billion, but literally zero. Because their investment in Rosneft is now owned by Putin.

Putin's counter-sanctions have created an environment where the PR benefit of publicly rejecting their Russian assets is worth more than the value of the assets themselves.

Weird world we live in.

BP still owns the shares, and on the future this could still give them a claim against Rosneft so this is not a gift to anyone.
how so?
Using laws. Russia has not germ entirely cut off from international trade, and the UK government will back up BPs interests. Nothings been gifted to anyone, the headline is highly misleading.
yeah, it isn't $25B anymore.
Of course, but it's not worth $0 either. And when the restrictions against Russia are lifted the value will be back up.
It’s worth as much a as anyone is willing to pay for it and currently there is no one bidding. The price ($0) reflects the risk of that being true for a long time.