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by ivan_gammel 1573 days ago
It would be such a gift at current share price. But Rosneft will probably become much cheaper.

1. Their current production capacity in Russia will decline, since they won’t be able to receive new equipment and spare parts.

2. Their exports capacity may be reduced if more sanctions will come.

3. Their cashflow will be heavily impacted by sanctions. They may not be able to receive money or spend them on domestic market (eg pay salaries).

4. Their foreign investments may be frozen or they may be forced to sell.

1 comments

This might be what the current dictator in that country wants - reduce the dependency on the imported components. And increase the percentage of state ownership of the natural resources.
This is probably the last time Putin uses Russia's resources to blackmail the EU. That's why he attacked Ukraine: he knew the window of opportunity to transform it into a Russian vasal state like Belarus is closing fast, so he picked the last refuge of the incompetent: violence. The EU won't build any ICE vehicles running on oil derivates after 2030, China is already ahead of them in this sectorand Germany just changed course with its plans to use Russian gas as for decarbonization after the invasion of Ukraine. China is also going to pay a lot less than the EU for Russian gas and there only so much pipeline capacity to deliver it. Russia basically just became dependent on China economically, just like Kazahstan and Mongolia. They have just invested $11.6B in a pipeline that will basically sit unused and will waste the rest of their dwindling treasury reserves on the war effort.
It is a good time in the US to stop subsidizing car economy. And let the price of gas increase. At least to the same level as in Europe.

It is heart-breaking to hear that we exclude energy from the embargo fighting to keep the gas prices low at all costs. We should pay $10 per gallon at the pump. And work at curbing our gas consumption.

I wish this was true, but if they wait a few more years and do it again but win in 1 or 2 days they could still get away with it. I don't see this as their last dangerous takeover, as long as Putin is around.