[jacquesm]

> I don't think so when looking at what has happened historically.

Interesting, I think that taking history into account that's actually far more likely than the opposite.

> Also, until Putin attacks NATO territory (which he most likely won't) there's not going to be an all out war.

That's two assumptions, both of which may be wrong, independently.

> We in the West are being a bit hyperbolic.

Hm. I don't think our current reaction to 'war at 30 km away from our Eastern border' is something that should be labelled hyperbolic. If anything it is rather tame.

> This is a serious issue, but not a "omg nukes are going to be flying next week" level of seriousness.

I'm not so much concerned with the next week bit as I am with the fact that you are worried about the timetable, but not about whether or not they will be flying at all.

> I'd instead watch what China will do with Taiwan while we are distracted...

Well, China now already knows something that they didn't know last week: that the Western world will stand by while they do what they want to do, as long as they don't attack a NATO member.

> Russia isn't some democracy that is cool with protesting.

Neither was Poland in the 80's. That didn't stop the protests.

> There are plenty of Russian's living there that are still USSR brainwashed and support this.

Yes, but that doesn't help the people in Ukraine.

[nickysielicki]

This is not a case of a dictatorship pursing war against the interests of 90% the population. A lot of Russians support the separatists and are glad to see the military step in.

If you’re completely confused at why Putin is doing this and the best reason you can come up with is that he’s evil and stupid and just wants destruction, it’s only because you don’t understand the situation.

[jacquesm]

> A lot of Russians support the separatists and are glad to see the military step in.

That doesn't really matter though, what matters is that they are there illegally. A lot of Germans supported the invasion of Poland as well to gain some 'lebensraum'. That did not make them right.

> If you’re completely confused at why Putin is doing this and the best reason you can come up with is that he’s evil and stupid and just wants destruction, it’s only because you don’t understand the situation.

I'm not confused at all. But it appears that you are given your alternative history regarding Donbas.

Putin has a country that is imploding, and if he doesn't find a way to make it seem as though he is a powerful leader then he may be out of leadership position soon. Him starting this war is an act of desperation: nothing to lose and everything to gain because whatever he stands to lose he would have lost anyway.

[nickysielicki]

> [Domestic support] doesn't really matter though, what matters is that they are there illegally. A lot of Germans supported the invasion of Poland as well to gain some 'lebensraum'. That did not make them right.

You’re moving the goal posts. You suggested that the Russian people could or should stage mass protests. I responded that you’re naive for thinking that Russians are going to stage mass protests against this because there’s large public support for the military actions here. Now you’re saying it doesn’t matter if there’s support for the war because it’s still wrong and illegal. Well, no shit?

So which is it? Is it Putin acting as a dictator against the will of his people in a desperate attempt to retain power, or is it just that the Russians support those in the Donbas region?

[jacquesm]

You are apparently utterly unaware of the reality on the ground in Russia, which I can't fault you for but it makes the discussion a bit tedious. FWIW: your 'average Russian' may well grumble at Putin, the hardships the country is operating under and the effect that sanctions will have on their already fragile economy. But they're likely not going to act, this has to do with living like that for the last 75 years or so. That does not mean that they support the invasion of Ukraine, but it does mean that when asked about this they are aware that whoever is asking it may have an agenda so of course they will say that they support it.

But it's not as simple as support vs a lack of support, the third option is apathy, something that Russia has plenty of.

I tried to show you - apparently that didn't work - that verbal support for Putin's safari does not necessarily equate to actual support, the alternatives are probably not even on the radar if you haven't lived under a repressive regime: you are very careful to toe the party line in public, no matter what you may think in private, and bitching against the state is a cottage industry in Russia. Given all this, what is surprising is that plenty of Russians are actually quite vocal against this invasion, which I consider to be a very positive sign.

https://www.voanews.com/a/moscow-warns-russians-against-stag...

and

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-arrests-anti-war-prot...

> Is it Putin acting as a dictator against the will of his people in a desperate attempt to retain power

Yes

> or is it just that the Russians support those in the Donbas region?

Yes.

So there: false dichotomies are false, reality is a bit more difficult than you can imagine.