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by slg 1583 days ago
>And when those American soldiers are killed by Russian missiles, do you then declare full on war on Russia, and we basically all die?

If we are going by the game theory, mutually assured destruction only works if both sides believe the other is willing to engage. If one side knows the other side will not engage, it becomes easy for the aggressive side to take advantage of the passive side.

Putin also doesn't want to die so the hope would have been that if the west was stronger and made it clear that an invasion would lead to war, there would be no invasion. Putin didn't see that commitment so he attacked.
1 comments
gambiting 1583 days ago
Like I said above - Putin has literally made a career out of calling west's bluffs. Would he call that one? Would he literally attack American/NATO troops to see if we'll really end the world over it?

I really don't want to find out. It's one hell of a gamble.

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slg 1583 days ago
>Putin has literally made a career out of calling west's bluffs. Would he call that one?

Well that is the point. As I said the west needs to make it clear that an invasion would lead to war. It can't be a bluff. But we all know the west wasn't willing to end civilization over this so here we are. Seems like Putin is going to keep prodding the west until he finds the line he is convinced we won't let him cross. That line was never going to be Georgia, Crimea, or the whole of Ukraine.

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xorfish 1583 days ago
Don't underestimate Ukraine in this conflict.

The Russian military doesn't have the resources for a prolonged guerilla conflict against a motivated resistance.

With the current actions, the Ukrainian population won't easily forget what Putin has done and even dictatorships need some level of approval from the population.

There is a reasonable chance that Putin excavated his own grave with his reprehensible actions.

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thiagoharry 1583 days ago
A guerilla assumes that Russia occupies Ukraine. I think this is improbable, I do not think that Russia want to deal with guerilla warfare and probable terrorist attacks coming from extremists from there. The east part of Ukraine in Donbass, recognized as independent by them, is precisely the part of Ukraine with more ethnical Russians that is against the Ukrainian government and were de facto independent and more pro-russian since years ago during Ukrainian civil war. From there a guerilla would be improbable. This attacks probably are more to send a message against NATO expansion there and to defend Donbass independence, not an invasion for occupation.
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